Summary

• Region focused on security threat of climate change
• Peace uncertain following New Caledonia unrest
• Concerns surrounding deep sea mining
• Progress for regional architecture on gender equality

Regionalism 

Forum members gathered as part of the Forum Economic Ministers Meeting for talanoa discussions on regional development that identified regional economic priorities and policies. This included plans for finalising the establishment of the Pacific Resilience Facility (PRF), the first Pacific-owned and Pacific-led international development financing institution. 

Leaders and representatives from 16 Pacific Island countries, plus Australia and New Zealand, gathered in Tokyo last week for the 10th Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM10). Japan expressed its support in partnering with Pacific Island countries to achieve the commitments of the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, with a particular focus on climate change. 

Geopolitics 

Political and social instability continues in the aftermath of violent unrest in New Caledonia as the threat of civil war looms and international pressure builds for France to give up its colonies. Pacific Island Forum Leaders have endorsed a high-level mission to New Caledonia in support of long-lasting peace arrangements and the de-escalation of further violence. Pro-Independence leaders in New Caledonia hoped that elections in France would result in a more sympathetic government, as New Caledonia elected Indigenous Kanak, Emmanuel Tjibaou, to France’s parliament.  

Climate and Environmental Security 

In addition to climate change undermining the security of Pacific nations, it also threatens the goal of achieving gender equality. These existential concerns are exacerbated by concerns regarding resource exploitation and environmental security. The Civil Society Forum of Tonga has warned that Tonga’s involvement with deep-sea mining companies poses risks of long-term environmental degradation that put the culture and well-being of Tonga at risk. New discoveries surrounding polymetallic nodules have also been interesting. 

Gender and Social Security 

The 15th Triennial Conference of Pacific Women and 8th Meeting of Pacific Ministers for Women was held from July 24-26 in Majuro, Republic of the Marshall Islands. The conference brought together women representatives from across government, civil society and youth activist organisations to progress regional architecture for gender equality. Reports on the high levels of harassment experienced by female journalists in the Pacific is a reminder of the ongoing need for improvements in gender equality. 

Summary

• Increasing measures taken around the region to protect environmental security
• Results uncertain following elections in Solomon Islands
• PNG discusses plans for a council on gun violence and control
• Progress and setbacks for LGBTQI+ communities

Regionalism

Pacific leaders travelled to Greece in April for the 9th Our Oceans Conference. The conference aimed to progress regional collective efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change and other challenges affecting Pacific maritime territories.

The Government of American Samoa is continuing to explore the possibility of joining the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat as a member. American Samoa currently possesses observer status on the Forum.

The Indonesian Ambassador to Fiji has met with Nauru President David Adeang to strengthen ties as a dialogue partner and affirm Nauru’s role in upholding the 2018 Boe Declaration.

Geopolitics 

Solomon Islands took to the polls in April. The country’s security relations were a focus of the campaign, with incumbent Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare platforming upon a solidified security relationship with China. Opposition members campaigned to scrap the arrangements in favour of alignment with other allies, such as Australia. Results from the election show that although Sogavare has not successfully secured the numbers needed to form government, two coalition groups are intensely lobbying to create the new government. One group is led by Jeremiah Manele, who replaced Sogavare as leader of Our Party, and Matthew Wale of the Democratic Party leads the other. The election of the Prime Minister will take place at the beginning of May. The impact of these elections on the broader security context of the region remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, geopolitical dynamics play out in domestic spheres with evolving international security dynamics and escalating global conflict. For example, Fiji’s support of Israel has raised questions about its traditional role as a peacekeeper.

Climate Security

Environmental organisations warn that coastal communities in Tonga remain vulnerable following the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption and tsunami in 2022 and continue to face food and water shortages.

Tokelau and Tuvalu are taking proactive measures to protect their language and cultural practices in the event of loss to climate change. The methods are drawn from a digital cultural preservation strategy that documents and records sacred sites.

Fiji, Australia and New Zealand will form a multilateral coalition to address problems of overfishing in the region. The move comes alongside Fiji’s goal to prioritise better equipped infrastructure for the management of environmental disasters.

Maori leaders, along with Polynesian elders from Tonga, Tahiti, Hawai’i, and Rapanui, have signed a treaty granting whales personhood. This will recognise whales as legal persons. The declaration seeks to support Indigenous stewardship over their ancestral waters, which in turn will allow for stronger conservation of whales and the ocean.

 Policing 

Questions surrounding gun control in PNG were discussed at a conference between members of the PNG military, police, the United Nations and the European Union. The discussion indicates that a council will be established to serve as an overarching body to monitor gun violence and gun control.

Gender and Social Security

Same-sex relationships have been decriminalised in Cook Islands, in a move towards improved Gender Equity and Social Inclusion. However, LGBTQI+ communities in the region continue to face discrimination as demonstrated by the recent death of a transgender woman in Fiji, allegedly due to a hate crime.

Summary

• Heavy rains, floods, landslides and earthquakes batter the region
• Pacific submissions to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on climate change responsibility
• Elections across the Pacific prompting changes to diplomatic relations and security arrangements
• Challenges for women in politics

Climate Security 

Lives have been lost in PNG after a series of floods, landslides and an earthquake. In Fiji, heavy rain and flash flood warnings have caused school closures and stay-at-home orders for non-essential civil servants.

The deadline for state submissions to historic proceedings at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which will clarify the legal responsibilities required in response to climate change, is closed this month. Pacific States have been key instigators of the case and have made submissions that detail the social, ecological, political and economic impacts of the climate crisis on their communities.

Ahead of COP29 meetings, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) has said 2024 is a critical year for the climate, calling for increased efforts to reduce global emissions before 2025.

Recently published research finds that traditional ecological knowledge for climate resilience should play a more significant role in sustaining Pacific Island communities in the future.

Geopolitics 

The shifting nature of geopolitical ties is again a focus point as elections take place across the region. Ahead of the April elections, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare is campaigning for tightened diplomatic relations with China. Meanwhile, Tuvalu received a visit from Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister following the recently announced establishment of diplomatic relations between Tuvalu and Taiwan. Tuvalu’s new prime minister, Feleti Teo, continues to talk through details of the Falepili Union with Australia. In the background of these evolving partnerships, ideas of the Blue Pacific as an “Ocean of Peace” continue to be discussed.

 Policing 

Fiji has restored its policing cooperation deal with China. In addition to enabling the sharing of intelligence and the supply of equipment, the deal allows for Fijian police officers to receive training in China, and for Chinese police officers to work within the Fijian police force.

Approximately 300 police personnel from Australia, New Zealand, Fiji and China will be deployed to Solomon Islands to provide support for the scheduled April elections.

The former deputy prime minister of the Cook Islands has been found guilty of fraud charges and will spend 18 months in jail. The news comes after the former prime minister of Fiji, Frank Bainimarama, was found guilty of attempting to pervert the course for justice for his interference in a 2018 police investigation.

Gender

Recent events in Fiji and the Solomon Islands involving female politicians have drawn attention to the representation of women in politics and the standards female politicians must face.

Representatives from PIF nations attended the 68^th annual Commission on the Status of Women (CSW68) from 11-22 March to insert Pacific priorities into the discussions.

The security stories shaping the region

• Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM) to be held in Tokyo in July 2024  
• 2023 warmest year on record, globally 
• Elections across the Pacific prompting changes to diplomatic relations and security arrangements 
• Extractive industries booming 
• Environmental conservation efforts ongoing 
• PNG riots shed light on policing and security arrangements  

Regionalism 

The Japanese government has announced it will host the Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM) in Tokyo in mid-July 2024, bringing together all 18 members of the Pacific Islands Forum. Priority agenda items will be climate change, infrastructure development, and security arrangements. These priorities continue to be dominant themes across the region. Concerns surrounding climate change are particularly prominent after 2023 was declared the warmest year on record globally, and the 3rd warmest year on record in the Western Pacific region. A Pacific-led research study has also found that a great majority of Pacific people will still be living and adapting to climate change in their homes in 2050. 

The security landscape of the Pacific continues to be characterised by evolving strategic arrangements. Prime Minister of Cook Islands, Mark Brown, has proposed a trilateral security relationship between Cook Islands, New Zealand and Australia. Nauru’s recent decision to sever ties with Taiwan and recognise Taiwan are indicative of significant changes to its diplomatic relations. There are several new MPs in Tuvalu following the recent elections, with possible implications for the recently signed Falepili Union. With multiple Island nations (Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Palau, Kiribati) facing elections in 2024, it remains to be seen how changing governments will navigate the security concerns facing the region. 

Environment and Resources 

Generating revenue through extractive industries is appealing due to the resource-rich contexts of the Pacific. The Porgera gold mine has reopened in PNG with PNG interests owning 51% of the venture. The mine was closed in 2020 after the government declined to renew the special mining lease which gave Barrick NL 95% ownership of the mine. Currently, Cook Islands is exploring the possible extraction modes for mining deep sea minerals. Supporters of deep-sea mining view it as a way to economically transition away from carbon-emitting energy sources, however, critics are concerned about the risk of environmental damage. 

Localised efforts to protect and preserve Pacific environments are ongoing. Palau has become the first member state of the United Nations, and first Pacific nation, to ratify the Marine Biodiversity Treaty. The Maungaroa Valley in Cook Islands is only one step away from being declared a World Heritage site by UNESCO. Meanwhile, the Solomon Islands government’s ban on single use plastics is due to come into effect on March 1, 2024, in an attempt to encourage the development of a market for sustainable alternatives to single-use plastics.   

 Policing 

In January, civil riots took place in Port Moresby after public servants and police ostensibly went on protest over pay cuts. Prime Minister James Marape declared a 14-day state of emergency following violence and looting that resulted in the death of 22 people. Prime Minister Marape faces calls for a vote of no confidence as a result of the political fallout in response to the riots. Delivering a historic address to the Australian Parliament in February, Prime Minister James Marape acknowledged that PNG aspires to become economically independent and move away from its reliance on foreign aid. PNG’s foreign affairs minister has declined to comment on a potential security and policing deal with China.

The security stories shaping the region

• Outcomes from 52nd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Meeting in Cook Islands
• 12^th General Assembly of the Pacific Conference of Churches
• Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union signed
• Pacific climate change advocacy at COP28
• EU-ACP Samoa Agreement signed
• Solomon Islands hosts 2023 Pacific Games
• First PNG woman for peacekeeping duties

Regionalism

The Fifty-Second Pacific Islands Forum was held in Rarotonga, Cook Islands from 6-10 November. Leaders acknowledged the region’s evolving strategic context and its ongoing security challenges including the climate emergency, continued impacts of COVID-19, economic challenges and the increasing global and geostrategic pressures on the region. The outcomes in response to these threats saw leaders reaffirm their commitment to the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent by endorsing its Implementation Plan.

Despite consensus on these broad aims, the meeting was not without disagreement. The debate around deep-sea mining (DSM) featured prominently in the meeting’s discussions. Notable supporters of DSM included Forum Chair, Mark Brown, and incoming Secretary General, Baron Waqa, however members such as Palau, New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Fiji and Vanuatu expressed their disapproval by calling for a moratorium on the exploitation of ocean minerals. Leaders ultimately agreed to respect the diversity of opinion on the issue by promoting sovereign decision making and have called for a Forum Talanoa Dialogue on DSM to be organised some time next year by the Forum Secretariat.

The following fortnight, the 12^th General Assembly of the Pacific Conference of Churches was held in Noumea from 16-23 November to present “a series of cultural, spiritual and theological reflections, while discussing social justice issues of self-determination, the environment and the rights of women and children.” Outcomes from the conference drew attention to the dumping of nuclear and other waste into the ocean. Delegates requested the ratification of the Treaty of the Prohibition on nuclear weapons and a total commitment to the Rarotonga Treaty for a Nuclear Free Pacific.

Climate and Environmental Security

The Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union was signed on 9 November. Reuters reported that the treaty is a security guarantee to Tuvalu to “…respond to military aggression, protect it from climate change and boost migration in a pact aimed at countering China’s influence in the Pacific.” The treaty received significant coverage for its establishment of special visa arrangements for Tuvaluan citizens to live, work and study in Australia as a response to displacement from climate change.

The signing of the union was followed by the announcement of a further AU$350 million for Pacific nations under the Pacific Climate Infrastructure Financing Partnership which Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese says is recognition of his government’s commitment to climate action in the region.

Meanwhile, Pacific driven responses to climate change and issues of environmental security achieve recognition. The government of Papua New Guinea has announced over 16,000 km² of new Marine Protected Areas which was achieved through a community-led approach to ensure that fishers and Indigenous People are centred in the protection of coastal areas. Tonga was also recognised as the 2023 Pacific Invasive Species Battler of the Year Award for their successful work at the grassroots level in eradicating rats which has in turn led to the resurgence of seabird populations and increased productivity in local coral reef systems. Ongoing efforts from Pacific Island Countries (PICs) to protect their climate and environmental security will be observed in the upcoming COP28.

Geopolitics

The new European Union- African Caribbean Pacific (EU-ACP) Partnership Agreement, known as the Samoa Agreement, was signed in Apia on 15 November. The agreement, designed to frame aid, trade, development and political relations between the European Union and former European colonies takes a renewed focus on global issues such as climate change with three separate regional protocols for Africa, the Caribbean and Pacific. The Pacific protocol features five core areas: environmental sustainability and climate change; inclusive and sustainable economic development; oceans, seas and fisheries; security, human rights, democracy and governance; and human and social development.  The localisation of the three protocols is intended to be an improvement on the one size fits all approach of the preceding Cotonou Agreement.

Solomon Islands hosted the 2023 Pacific Games from 19 November – 2 December. Concerns over previous history of civil unrest in the Solomon Islands led to a significant deployment of additional forces, including over 450 personnel forces from the Australian military and Australian federal police, Chinese forces, and the US hospital ship, USNS Mercy.

Women, Peace and Security

In a milestone event for women in security Major Jacqueline Lilih is the first female PNG military officer posted to the United Nations Peacekeeping mission in Sudan. Lilih encouraged other women in security by saying “there will be a lot of obstacles that will drag you down and we are competing with our male colleagues for all these opportunities. But don’t be scared to venture out.”

Watch and Listen

Read more

The security stories shaping the region

• 52nd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Meeting in Cook Islands 
• The South Pacific Connect Initiative
• Australia-United States commitments to Pacific finance and infrastructure
• Lowy Institute 2023 Pacific Aid Map
• Tropical Cyclone Lola hits Vanuatu and Solomon Islands
• Parties to the Nauru Agreement endorse the Kirimati Communique 
• Tonga prepares for El Niño drought

Regionalism

The 52nd Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Leaders’ Meeting took place in Cook Islands this week. For the first time since 2019, Dialogue Partners, including China, the United States, the United Kingdom and other non-member nations joined PIF members in Rarotonga. PIF Chair and Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown used his opening speech to emphasise that Our Voices, Our Choices, Our Pacific Way: Promote, Partner, Prosper, was not just the meeting’s theme but a collective regional “call to action” for leaders and delegates.

At the Small Islands States Leaders Meeting earlier in the week, Forum Secretary General Henry Puna urged delegates to see increasing strategic interests in the region as an opportunity, stating “we can take full advantage of this strategic environment and reap sustainable outcomes for our people.”

PIF leaders journeyed to the island of Aitutaki to talanoa privately before returning to Rarotonga to discuss regional issues and the implementation of the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent.

South Pacific Connect

Australia and the US have pledged funding towards the South Pacific Connect Initiative. The Google undersea cable network will link the US mainland, Australia, Fiji, and French Polynesia, providing branching units for the US compact states, Kiribati, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. The initiative is intended to reduce the digital divide in the Pacific and enhance the reliability, resilience and capacity of digital connectivity across the region. Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka said of the initiative: “we are forging a stronger, more connected, and resilient digital future for Fiji, the Pacific, and beyond, creating a legacy of economic growth, skill development, and progress for all.”

The South Pacific Connect funding was one of many regional commitments made during Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit to US President Joe Biden in Washington. Key additional commitments include the launch of the Pacific Banking Forum to enhance the region’s access to financial services, additional funding of US$50 million towards the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility to support digital connectivity options for Pacific nations and funding towards the multilateral Blue Dot Network to promote quality, transparent and sustainable infrastructure projects. The leaders also reaffirmed both nations’ commitment to the AUKUS submarine deal.

Development Assistance

The Lowy Institute has released the 2023 edition of the Pacific Aid Map. The map includes data on more than 30,000 aid projects across 14 recipient states in the region, who received AU$5.5 billion in official development finance (ODF) in 2021. This record-breaking number is “still far from what the region needs in terms of funding — not just for classic development purposes, but also the negative consequence of climate change,” according to The Lowy Institute’s Alexandre Dayant. Australia remains the largest development partner in the Pacific, contributing nearly 40% of total ODF in the region between 2008-2021, whilst China’s share of annual funding in the region dropped from a high of 14% in 2016 to less than 5% in 2021.

Environment and Resources

Northern Vanuatu and Tikopia in Solomon Islands are recovering from the damages caused by Tropical Cyclone Lola in late October. This is the third major cyclone to hit the archipelago this year, leaving just 50 of the 198 homes on the island of Tikopia intact. In Vanuatu, a six-month State of Emergency has been declared in the Malampa, Penama, Sanma, Shefa and Torba Provinces. The Vanuatu Government has approved 1.5% of its total annual budget to fund the cyclone response, in addition to the humanitarian assistance provided under the FRANZ cooperation between France, Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand.

The Parties to the Nauru Agreement Leaders’ Summit was held in Kirimati, Kiribati last month. Representatives from Tuvalu, PNG, Solomon Islands, Marshall Islands, Palau, Federates States of Micronesia and Kiribati endorsed the Kirimati communique. Key agreements of the communique include the prioritised development of electronic monitoring  to ensure continuous and independent monitoring of fisheries, consideration to developing broader sets of standards including those related to human rights, crew welfare and transparency, and preparation to adapt and seek justice in relation to negative climate change impacts on fisheries.

Finally, Tonga is preparing for severe drought conditions caused by El Niño. Tonga’s main island of Tongatapu and nearby ‘Eua are already in drought conditions, with drought warnings in place for Ha’apai and Vava’u and drought alerts for Niua-toputapu and Niua-fo’ou. Prime Minister of Tonga Siaosi Sovaleni told the media that the main concern is sufficient water resources for residents of the outer islands, with the government planning to provide these areas with desalination machines to convert seawater into drinking water.

 

Watch and Listen

Heather Wrathall and Kate Archer from Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue (AP4D) explore how Australia can work with Pacific islands to invest in new technology and take a leadership role in the decarbonisation of shipping in the region. Read more

The security stories shaping the region

• Fiji Prime Minister Rabuka promotes Pacific “Zone of Peace” 
• Fiji-Australia Memorandum of Understanding on Cyber Security Cooperation 
• Papua New Guinea and China hold bilateral talks
• United States and Marshall Islands renew COFA
• Vanuatu, Samoa and Fiji receive Japanese human security support
• Pacific Islands Forum releases Loss and Damage Policy Primer
• Kiribati signs EU fisheries protocol
• Pacific Small Island Developing States prepare for COP28

Geopolitics

Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka promoted the Pacific as a “Zone of Peace” during his week-long visit in Australia. Prime Minister Rabuka provided details of what the nascent concept would mean for the region at a Lowy Institute and 2023 FDC Pacific Lecture at Old Parliament House, Canberra. Prime Minister Rabuka explained that under the Zone or “Ocean of Peace,” major powers and Pacific nations would commit to “maintaining respect for each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” and refraining from “actions that may jeopardise regional order and stability.” Prime Minister Rabuka further suggested that the concept support Pacific nations with armed forces to assist in other regional countries’ domestic issues, such as Fijian peacekeepers contributing to managing escalating tribal conflicts in Papua New Guinea. He has vowed to table the concept to the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) leaders meeting in Cook Islands next month.

While in Australia, Prime Minister Rabuka met with Prime Minister of Australia Anthony Albanese. A key outcome from the bilateral talks is the commitment to a new Fiji-Australia Memorandum of Understanding on Cyber Security Cooperation to address evolving global security threats. Both Prime Ministers further agreed to work with each other and other regional leaders to enhance climate adaptation and resilience cooperation. Regarding Australia’s’ bid to co-host COP31 with other Pacific nations, Prime Minister Rabuka acknowledged that no COP host has done enough to reduce emissions and encouraged PIF leaders to “support Australia. It’s the only time we can bring the world to us … that will resonate with the rest of the world.”

Papua New Guinea (PNG) Prime Minister James Marape met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing this month. The joint statement following the talks covered a number of areas of bilateral cooperation and prospective multilateral cooperation between China and the PNG including:

• the creation of Special Economic Zones (SEZs), downstream processing and value adding of renewable and nonrenewable resources.
• accelerating the China-PNG Free Trade Agreement process and complete the Joint Feasibility Study.

• forging people-to-people relations through scholarships, visits by medical teams and Chinese language teachers, and
• collaboration on the implementation of the UN Framework on Climate Change and its Paris Agreement.

The document outlines both countries’ efforts to “take cooperation between China and Pacific Islands as a whole to a new level.” This cooperation is envisioned as building multilateral frameworks on issues including emergency supplies, poverty alleviation and climate response.

The Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI) has successfully concluded negotiations with the United States (US) on a third Compact of Free Association (COFA). The COFA will provide economic assistance of US$2.3 billion to RMI over 20 years, in return for the US’ exclusive military access to the 2.1 million square kilometres of ocean surrounding the Pacific nation. US renewed COFAs with Palau and Federated States of Micronesia in May, however the RMI signing has been delayed due to ongoing issues surrounding the legacy of the US’ nuclear testing programs in the 1940s and 1950s. All three COFAs await endorsement by the US Congress.

Vanuatu, Samoa and Fiji received support towards human security projects from Japan this month. Vanuatu’s Ministry of Health received Japanese medical equipment including electrocardiographs, infant incubators and bedside X-ray machines. In Samoa, funding from Japan’s Grant Assistance for Grass-Roots Human Security Projects went towards the construction of facilities at a college and primary school. Finally, Fiji’s Maritime Safety Authority received oil spill prevention equipment and towing vehicles. Fiji Minister of Public Works, Transport, and Meteorological Services Ro Filipe Tuisawau said “Their (Japan’s) support has enabled us to embark on important projects to improve the lives of our citizens.”

Environmental Security

The PIF has released their Policy Primer on Loss and Damage Considerations for Pacific Island Countries. The paper outlines key considerations for responding to loss and damage in the Pacific context, including the development status of Pacific nations, defining local contexts and understanding diminishing adaptation potential. The paper concludes that governance continues to pose a challenge to financing loss and damage, highlighting that voluntary national commitments and donor reliant funds have failed to meet requirements. This section notes that the Pacific’s ocean stewardship and geostrategic significance provides rationale for Pacific nations to ensure all opportunities to influence international loss and damage negotiations “are leveraged.”

Kiribati has signed a new fisheries protocol with the European Union (EU). The five-year partnership agreement will grant the EU Pacific fleet access to Kiribati’s tuna stocks. Contributions from shipowners and the EU are anticipated to provide up to $AU30 million to Kiribati over the duration of the agreement.

Finally, leaders and officials from Pacific Small Islands States (PSIDS) have gathered in Apia for a preparatory meeting ahead of COP28 next month. The Chair of the Alliance of Small Islands States (AOSIS) Samoa representative Anne Rasmussen shared this message with delegates:

“Consider your uniqueness as Pacific Island nations and work hard to defend that, but understand that in doing so, you are part of a larger family of island countries that have similar needs and priorities and that we stand strongest together.”

 

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In this special edition of the Pacific Security Snapshot, we look at the key issues raised by Pacific leaders at the recent United Nations General Assembly, including climate change, reform to multilateral institutions and ocean health.

“These challenges might be inconvenient for large economies – but I can assure the climate impacts already at our door, and those yet to come, are decidedly more inconvenient for low-lying atoll states like mine, and for other island nations around the world.” – Republic of the Marshall Islands President David Kabua

The theme of the 78^th session of the United Nations General Assembly was Rebuilding trust and reigniting global solidarity: Accelerating action on the 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals towards peace, prosperity, progress and sustainability for all. The sentiment of reignition carried through the addresses made by Pacific delegates in the general debate. As the region has often relied on multilateralism to pursue its security interests and agenda, leaders used this year’s session to call for reform and greater global ambition to address regional priorities.

The first Forum Island Country (FIC) to address the general debate was Palau. President Surangel J. Whipps began with an outline of challenges faced by many Pacific Island nations, including the rising cost of imported food, outmigration and the COVID-19 pandemic. Starting off the climate advocacy carried by every Pacific speaker, President Whipps called climate change the biggest challenge to regional progress on Sustainable Development Goals but urged for optimism on the power of multilateralism in combatting climate change, stating “Together, we are unstoppable. Together, we can ensure a thriving planet for generations to come.”

Micronesian representatives Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) and Nauru all noted that progress continues to be hampered by the structure of the UN system. FSM President Wesley W. Simina, along with Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, called for the reform of the UN Security Council to include a permanent seat representing Small Island Developing States.
Reform was also advocated as the solution to enhancing Pacific access to climate financing and debt relief. Tonga, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, Fiji and Solomon Islands called for reform of the international financial architecture, with Papua New Guinea Deputy Prime Minister John Rossa labelling the current system “unfair and archaic.”

Beyond multilateral institutions, many FICs called on emitting countries to strengthen emissions reduction targets and commitments to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius. Vanuatu highlighted that the twin cyclone event earlier this year and resulting total recovery needs are expected to be around 77% of the country’s GDP, calling for a change to the “woefully inadequate” state of global mitigation efforts. Samoan Prime Minister Fiame Mata’afa emphasised what’s at stake for keeping 1.5 degrees Celsius alive, telling the Assembly that “crossing this threshold spells the end of many of our island societies.”

Prime Minister Mata’afa further noted the fight against climate change requires a healthy ocean, stating “the ocean is in us and we are the ocean.” Samoa, along with FSM, Palau, Solomon Islands, Fiji, New Zealand and Australia signed the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction agreement whilst in New York. Tuvalu Prime Minister Kausea Natano used his address to reflect the agreement’s importance in “preserving the health and diversity of the ocean ecosystems for both its own sustainability and the well-being of the global community.”

In Fiji’s address, Prime Minister Sitiveni declared that “our blue Pacific is at the centre of geopolitical tensions.”  Geopolitical dynamics were touched on by PNG, Samoa, Solomon Islands, FSM and Kiribati, however the focus was clearly on Pacific security priorities.

Human security challenges including high rates of gender-based violence, poverty and non-communicable diseases were also raised as challenges by many FICs, including Tonga, PNG and Samoa. Tonga Prime Minister Hu’akavameiliku Siaosi Sovaleni said, “it is unacceptable” that progress towards gender, poverty and hunger have “either stalled or reversed.”

Returning to the greatest regional security threat, climate change, Pacific leaders looked to COP28 as the opportunity for the international community to show their support through the operationalisation of the Loss and Damages Fund. The urgency of this fund was expressed by FSM President Wesley Simina: “It is time for those most responsible for climate change to put your money where your mouth is, for the cost of not doing so is far greater than what could ever be quantified.”

The security stories shaping the region

• 2nd United States-Pacific Islands Forum Summit 
• Niue and Cook Islands forge diplomatic ties with United States
• Chinese navy vessel arrives in Papua New Guinea
• Pacific climate change advocacy at the United Nations
• El Niño is officially declared
• Fifteenth Pacific Health Ministers Meeting in Tonga
• HIV and tuberculosis cases increase in Papua New Guinea

Geopolitics

Representatives from all Forum Island Countries attended the second United States (US)-Pacific Islands Forum Summit in Washington, D.C from 25-26 September. The summit was a reaffirmation of the Declaration on U.S.-Pacific Partnership issued in September 2022, with US President Biden making new commitments totaling a $US200 million increase in funding to the region. Subject to congressional approval, this funding covers an array of non-traditional security activities including projects dedicated to mitigating climate change impacts, sustainable fisheries management, improving public health, enhancing access to ICT infrastructure and strengthening economic growth in the region. Conventional security issues are addressed through funding an expanded US Coast Guard presence in the Pacific and strengthening port security and customs, counter-trafficking and anti-money laundering efforts.

Notable absences from the summit included Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare and Vanuatu Prime Minister Sato Kilman, the latter due to a vote of no-confidence being presented to Parliament. Prime Minister Sogavare clarified his decision to be in Honiara rather than Washington in a press conference, stating there are “issues more important” to attend to domestically. Prime Minister Sogavare also criticised the limited speaking time given to Pacific leaders at the summit compared to his bilateral meetings with other world leaders, including with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and People’s Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping, stating that the US must demonstrate “more respect to Pacific leaders.”

Prior to the summit, Niue and Cook Islands established diplomatic ties with the US. Cook Islands Prime Minister and Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Chair Mark Brown said, “These milestones celebrate eras of change and demonstrate that with unshakable resolve and leadership, remarkable achievements are possible.”

Chinese naval training ship Qi Jiguang has docked in Port Moresby on a ‘good will mission’ to Papua New Guinea (PNG). The 300 personnel will visit schools and participate in sporting competitions while in PNG. PNG Defence Minister Win Bakri Daki told The National that the PNG-China relationship “goes a long way back” and benefits include support to PNG “infrastructure, economic and human development especially for our military.” The vessel’s next stop is expected to be Fiji.

Climate Security

Pacific leaders presented a united stance on climate action at the 78th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this month. The theme: Rebuilding trust and reigniting global solidarity: Accelerating action on the 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals towards peace, prosperity, progress and sustainability for all. Forum country representatives used their addresses at the general debate to highlight how climate change is impeding the Pacific region’s ability to reach Sustainable Development Goals, with Palau President Surangel Whipps identifying climate change as the “most significant challenge” preventing progress. The need to keep within 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and reduce emissions was, once again, echoed by Pacific delegates. Leaders further urged developed countries to meet and increase funding to climate change mitigation, loss and damage, with President of the Republic of the Marshall Islands David Kabua calling on donors to “come together to address the climate finance crisis.”

As delegates called for enhanced global climate commitments at the UN headquarters, the climate pattern El Niño was officially declared back home. Impacts vary across the Pacific region, with countries located in the southwest Pacific experiencing lower than normal rainfall whilst countries in the central and eastern Pacific can expect increased rainfall. Other anticipated climate impacts include increased cyclone events and drought. The Vanuatu Meteorological and Geo-Hazards Department (VMGD) is advising people to prepare for food and water shortages as drier conditions are expected in the country. VMGD principal scientific officer Glenda Pakoa told RNZ Pacific that potential health implications include increases in cases of diarrhea as people look for alternative water sources. Food and economic security are also at stake, as the increased risk of coral bleaching and impact on tuna catch threaten subsistence and commercial fishing across the region.

Human Security

The Fifteenth Pacific Health Ministers Meeting (PHMM) took place in Tonga on 20-22 September. Ministers and delegates from all FICs met in Nuku’alofa, committing to 26 actions to address priority health issues and requesting support on 20 development partner actions. The priority health issues are rethinking human resources for health; tackling the drivers of obesity, particularly for children and young people; advancing health sector information and digital transformation; and strengthening health system resilience. Challenges explored included the regional shortage of health workers, rising rates of obesity, preparing for future pandemics and managing climate change-related diseases and disasters.

In further human security reporting, HIV and tuberculosis (TB) infections are on the rise in PNG. Business for Health Director Ann Clarke told RNZ Pacific that the latest UNAIDS snapshot on HIV in PNG revealed a 91% increase from 2021 reporting, with 6,500 new infections. TB poses an additional threat to life, with Clarke saying the disease has caused “more deaths last year than we have ever had.” High rates of community transmission of TB in PNG are life-threatening, as someone unaware of their HIV status is also at risk of dying of TB. Clarke said the solution is promoting awareness on the utilisation of medical services in PNG, where patients who present for one type of test are offered dual testing for both HIV and TB.

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The security stories shaping the region

• Pacific Islands Forum Women Leaders Meeting
• Pacific High-Level Dialogue on Climate Change
• Fiji to sign Status of Forces Agreement with France
• Palau expands United States maritime law enforcement agreement
• Papua New Guinea special elite force to combat tribal violence
• Australia extends police presence in Solomon Islands

Women, Peace and Security

The 2nd Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Women Leaders Meeting was held in Fiji at the start of this month. The meeting was the first of its kind to be held face to face, as well as the first forum meeting to include youth delegates in a policy dialogue. Delegates met in Suva under the theme “Our PACIFIC WAY: Strengthened Commitment to Gender Equality, Equity and Social Inclusion.” Key discussion items included understanding the definition of gender in the Pacific context, considering women’s leadership in politics and other sectors, and discussing changes necessary to address the high rates of gender-based violence in the region.

Pacific Political Climate Champion for Gender and Social Inclusion and Niue Minister for Natural Resources Mona Ainuu used her keynote address to highlight the gendered implications of climate security threats, stating “climate change, gender inequality and social exclusion are interwoven challenges.” Minister Ainuu further discussed the need for strengthened health security, education and access to climate financing for women and marginalised groups. A key outcome of the meeting was the call to revitalise the decade-old 2012 Pacific Leaders Equality Declaration, which will be taken to the PIF Leaders Meeting hosted by Cook Islands in November.

Climate Security

Another regional first took place in Fiji through the Pacific High-Level Climate Change Dialogue. The government of Fiji hosted the event in Suva, with the aim of discussing regionally driven solutions to limit the rise in the average global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius. In his opening remarks, Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka said climate change “represents a real threat to our islands, our people, and our very way of life.” Delegates from 15 Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS) outlined top priorities for staying under 1.5C including a Pacific declaration outlining a plan and timeline for the complete phase-out of fossil fuels, and a call for all forms of climate finance to better respond to the needs of PSIDS.

Geopolitics

Fiji is strengthening its security ties with France through a bilateral Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). The Fiji cabinet approval of the SOFA comes after French President Emmanuel Macron visited Fiji in July as part of his tour of the Pacific, promoting a French “alternative” to the region. The SOFA proposed areas of cooperation include joint defence training and logistical support, along with defence technology and research. The agreement also covers cooperation and assistance in the provision of international humanitarian and emergency assistance. Further details will be provided in a joint procedural document to be signed by both parties.

Palau has signed an expanded bilateral maritime law enforcement agreement with the United States. The signing comes after Palau President Surangel S. Whipps requested US support in handling unauthorised excursions into Palau’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by Chinese research/survey vessels. The agreement is intended to help Palau monitor its EEZ, deter uninvited vessels and combat Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing. President Whipps has stated “it’s these types of partnerships that help us work toward our common goal of peace and prosperity in the region.”

Policing

Papua New Guinea will establish a special police unit to combat increasing tribal violence in the Highlands. The announcement comes as Enga Province experiences an outbreak in tribal fighting, which has disrupted the reopening of Porgera Gold Mine and has contributed to 150 deaths in August alone. Acknowledging community concerns about the growing use of the PNG military, Prime Minister James Marape told RNZ Pacific that the state is “empowering police” to tackle the security threat instead. Prime Minister Marape said the code of operation for the new police team will apply across the country and perpetrators of what is being labelled “domestic terrorism” will face life jail terms.

Australia has committed to extending the Solomon Islands International Assistance Force (SIAF) deployment mechanism to June 2024. Australian forces were initially set to leave Solomon Islands in December, however Australia has committed to increasing its police presence for the November Pacific Games and the 2024 Solomon Islands general elections. Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare said, “the security support needed for both events is huge and Australia’s affirmative response will definitely fill security gaps leading up to, during and after the two important events.”

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