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		<title>Political will and better coordination needed to translate security commitments into action</title>
		<link>https://pacificsecurity.net/media-release/political-will-and-better-coordination-needed-to-translate-security-commitments-into-action/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Megan Dingwall]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Sep 2026 06:19:28 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://pacificsecurity.net/?post_type=media-release&#038;p=4938</guid>

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																								<p>Sustained leadership, strengthened regional architecture, people-centred planning, and coordinated partnerships would help the region translate security declarations and commitments into action, panellists at a side event at the 55<sup>th</sup> Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Meeting have said.</p>
<p>‘Towards a region of peace and security: From political vision to action’, hosted by the Pacific Security College and Palau Community College, brought together representatives from government, civil society, education and regional organisations to discuss how the Pacific can move from strategic vision to practical implementation, ensuring a peaceful, resilient and secure region.</p>
<p>Honourable Jennifer S. Olegeriil, Palau’s Minister for Justice, said governments and the region had to be accountable for the commitments they had made.</p>
<p>“The Pacific has been very clear about the region we want it to be. We certainly have the vision. It’s about turning those visions into heartfelt, tangible outcomes. It must start with political will, and perhaps even more importantly, for that political will to continue,” she said.</p>
<p>Minister Olegeriil said countries across the region needed to work together to address security challenges, while being conscious of their respective capacities and capabilities.</p>
<p>“The Pacific is not a one-size-fits-all. We don&#8217;t all need to have the same capabilities, but we do need to know what we can do ourselves, where we have gaps, and where we can rely on one another. Regionalism – that to me is the value of being a region,” Minister Olegeriil said.</p>
<p>“How do we build the relationships that allow us to respond together when a challenge crosses our borders? Because the threats we are dealing with today do not respect those borders. Whether we are talking about transnational organised crime, cyber threats, maritime security, climate-related challenges, or other emerging risks – no single country can address all of these issues alone.”</p>
<p>Tuvalu’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Labour and Trade, Honourable Paulson Panapa, said having the political will to implement the region’s security commitments meant choosing regional unity over fragmentation, and embedding Pacific values and a people-centred approach to security.</p>
<p>“Political will is expressed when leaders deliberately prioritise regional solidarity, even when geopolitical competition pressures countries to act alone,” he said.</p>
<p>“The region has strong frameworks. We have the Boe Declaration, the 2050 Strategy, Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace, but political will means ensuring that these commitments are executed, not just referenced.</p>
<p>“Political will is shown when leaders ensure security decisions reflect Pacific values, community voices, and holistic definitions of security.”</p>
<p>Minister Panapa said leaders needed to maintain momentum between meetings through continuous engagement, strengthening implementation architecture, and ensuring national agencies deliver on regional commitments.</p>
<p>“Momentum requires structure, predictable political engagement through the year…to keep leaders connected to implementation, rather than waiting for the annual summit,” he said.</p>
<p>He also encouraged leaders to look ahead to emerging risks, not just reacting to crises, to keep a focus on long-term resilience.</p>

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				<figcaption class="block prose text-xs mt-4 max-w-2xl"><p>Dr Manu Tupou-Roosen speaks at the panel discussion. Photo: Pacific Security College</p>
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																								<p>Dr Manu Tupou-Roosen, Head of the School of Ecology and Resilience Development at the Pasifika Communities University in Fiji, and former Director-General of the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA), said the region had demonstrated its ability to work together, pointing to the success of the FFA and the Parties to the Nauru Agreement.</p>
<p>“As Pacific people, we&#8217;ve shown consistently that when we work together, we can achieve anything, as long as we have a common purpose and common will,” she said.</p>
<p>“The Pacific already benefits from very rich, diverse and capable regional mechanism organisations, so I don&#8217;t think that the primary challenge is a lack of institutions. Rather, it&#8217;s ensuring that our regional architecture operates in a coherent and connected way and ensuring that regional architecture continues to work in support of the priorities established not just by our leaders but by our people at any level, including in the community.”</p>
<p>Dr Tupou-Roosen said responding to the interconnected security challenges confronting the region, including maritime security, food security, energy security, economic security, as well as gender-based violence, drugs, health crises, and online harms, required stronger cohesion across regional organisations. She also highlighted the need for stronger interagency coordination, and ensuring regional architecture was fit for purpose and that regional action remained firmly connected to national priorities.</p>
<p>“[It’s] not about creating more institutions, [but] making the best use of what we’ve got,” she said.</p>
<p>Villaney Remengesau, a Palauan disability rights advocate who was elected to the United Nations Committee on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities in June, reflected on what practical action to address security challenges would look like in reality.</p>
<p>“If we meet again in three to five years, we want to see real changes in our lives, in our daily lives. Enough of talking. We need action,” she said.</p>
<p>“We want to see a stronger community that is resilient, better prepared for climate change and disaster. We also want to see stronger economic and energy security, more opportunities for our people. We also want to see safer communities, that is that we have protection for our people against online and offline threats and organised crimes.</p>
<p>“And we want to see more younger people involved in the decision-making process because the decisions made today will impact their future.”</p>
<p>The speakers also reflected on the role of partners in supporting the region. Moderator Viliame Bovoro, Director of the Pacific Fusion Centre, acknowledged that to achieve many of its goals, the Pacific needed partnerships and resourcing.</p>
<p>“We need the assistance, to work with partners to bring some of this vision, to be able to drive action, and to be able to implement and execute,” he said.</p>
<p>Minister Olegeriil said the Pacific was fortunate to have many partners who genuinely wanted to support the region, but that the support needed to be coordinated and aligned with Pacific priorities.</p>
<p>“Clearly identified priorities can also help better tailor assistance, support and funding that will benefit and produce sought outcomes, rather than become additional hurdles. Sometimes the challenge is not a lack of support; it is that we have many partners doing good work, but not always in a way that is connected to what others are doing,” she said.</p>
<p>“Sustainability is very important. We welcome training. We welcome technical expertise. We welcome resources. But ultimately, a good partnership should leave us stronger and more capable than we were before when that partnership ultimately ends and we have to do it on our own.</p>
<p>“We should all be working towards a Pacific that is not simply supported by its partners, but a Pacific that is stronger, more capable and more confident in meeting its own security agenda, with the help and support of friends.”</p>

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				<figcaption class="block prose text-xs mt-4 max-w-2xl"><p>Villaney Remengesau (left) said Pacific people needed action, not just talk. Photo: Pacific Security College</p>
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																								<p>Ms Remengesau echoed the need for better coordination and alignment with Pacific priorities.</p>
<p>“We need to ensure that our regional organisations and development partners work closely together, are better coordinated, so they can deliver better results for the people,” she said.</p>
<p>“We have many priorities, but we don&#8217;t see the results affecting the lives of our people. So, we want actions. We want to see the results.”</p>
<p>Following the panel discussion, Director of the Pacific Security College, Professor Dave Peebles launched the <a href="https://pacificsecurity.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/2026-Pacific-Peace-and-Security-Dialogue-Report.pdf"><em>2026 Pacific Peace and Security Dialogue Report</em></a>.</p>
<p>The report highlights that stronger regional cooperation will be critical in implementing solutions to address the region’s security challenges, described as a ‘polycrisis’.</p>
<p>“The idea behind the polycrisis is that these really big challenges, like climate change and geopolitics and transnational crime and supporting and promoting human development, are all sort of running together and feeding off each other and making for a very complicated situation. That&#8217;s the serious challenge part of it,” Professor Peebles said.</p>
<p>“But really, the opportunity and the hope is that this is a challenge that the Pacific can overcome. And I&#8217;d say three things: vision, community, and trust.</p>
<p>“And working together as one region doesn&#8217;t diminish sovereignty; it actually adds to sovereignty as well.”</p>
<p>Read the <a href="https://pacificsecurity.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/2026-Pacific-Peace-and-Security-Dialogue-Report.pdf"><em>2026 Pacific Peace and Security Dialogue Report</em></a> online.</p>

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		<title>Setting the new Pacific renewables commissioner up for success</title>
		<link>https://pacificsecurity.net/blog/setting-the-new-pacific-renewables-commissioner-up-for-success/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Megan Dingwall]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 23:55:30 +0000</pubDate>
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																								<p><strong>The proposed new energy commissioner should help Pacific Island governments secure the region’s energy supply. When shaping the role&#8217;s terms of reference, Hugo Temby urges, Pacific leaders should aim high.</strong></p>
<p>Spurred by the ongoing chaos in global energy markets, Pacific officials are currently negotiating terms of reference for a new energy commissioner for the region. The intent is to finalise them at the 55th Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Meeting in Palau.</p>
<p>The proposed commissioner is a good idea on its face. With an appropriate mandate and sufficient resourcing, the commissioner should be able to help Pacific Island governments to secure the region’s energy supply.</p>
<p>As Pacific energy ministers <a href="https://www.pcreee.org/article/pacific-energy-and-transport-ministers-launch-manubada-call-action-and-new-flagship" target="_blank" rel="noopener">agreed at a recent meeting</a> in Port Moresby, &#8220;a 100% renewable energy future for the Blue Pacific [is] critical to achieving energy security, reducing vulnerability to external shocks and advancing climate and development priorities&#8221;.</p>
<p>But the Pacific’s renewable energy ambitions have not always translated into effective, equitable projects on the ground (or <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032124001862" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ocean</a>) due to several persistent issues.</p>
<p>There is a widening gap between needed and actual investment, due partly to difficulties accessing finance, and partly to a lack of ‘shovel ready’ projects.</p>
<p>Projects that do secure investment must then overcome several delivery challenges, including during procurement and installation.</p>
<p>Once built, projects are often challenging to integrate, operate and maintain in Pacific contexts, with several projects operating well under their rated capacity.</p>
<p>And <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484724008813" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent research</a> shows that some projects have been rushed to completion with insufficient attention to the needs and aspirations of energy users.</p>
<p>But what could an energy commissioner do to help Pacific governments address these issues, and realise a more inclusive – and effective – energy transition? In an increasingly crowed policy space, the question needs careful consideration.</p>
<p>In a new policy paper published by the Pacific Security College, <a href="https://pacificsecurity.net/policy-paper/how-an-energy-transition-commissioner-can-secure-the-pacifics-renewable-energy-future-cleaner-power-with-the-people/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>How an energy transition commissioner can secure the Pacific’s renewable energy future: cleaner power, with the people</em></a>, I urge Pacific leaders to aim high.</p>
<p>Informed by a rapid review of comparable experiences, I suggest the role of the commissioner should be to provide independent energy advice to Pacific governments and – crucially – to Pacific communities and better coordinate the many organisations that aim to support them.</p>
<p>Their overarching objective should be to facilitate a more timely, and equitable, energy transition. They should focus on several priority areas including increasing investment, identifying and delivering innovative solutions, and promoting more sustainable management of energy assets.</p>
<p>Most of these touch on aspects of other agency’s work. Close coordination will be needed here.</p>
<p>There is much less existing work under the final priority area, advancing more inclusive approaches to project design and delivery. Here, the commissioner could work with University of the South Pacific and other experts as required to develop new models that increase Pacific peoples’ access to, ownership of, and benefits from renewable energy.</p>
<p>Fit-for-purpose governance arrangements will also be necessary.</p>
<p>I recommend a multi-year, untied funding contribution of FJ$18 million over four years, sufficient for the commissioner, a professional staff and a modest program budget.</p>
<p>Building on experience with the Pacific Ocean Commissioner, the new commissioner should report directly to leaders and join existing Council of Regional Organisations of the Pacific coordination mechanisms.</p>
<p>Leaders should also consider establishing a broad-based advisory body, modelled on the Pacific Ocean Alliance, to advise the new commissioner on emerging issues.</p>
<p>To build regional ownership, I suggest the new commissioner and their team make a concerted effort to connect with their wider constituency, including Pacific energy users such as householders and businesses, through <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s44168-023-00059-0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">deliberative Pacific methods</a>.</p>
<p>The model for the new commissioner should also evolve over time in response to changing circumstances and stakeholder feedback.</p>
<p>Notably, leaders should consider in future whether to task the commissioner with an independent redress mechanism for community members who have been negatively impacted by energy infrastructure.</p>
<p>The respondents to the paper raise several important concerns.</p>
<p>Cherol Ala Ianna and Paul Munro insist the new commissioner must add to the region’s capacity – not detract from it through additional bureaucracy.</p>
<p>And Tolefoa Annie Tuisuga suggests there may be an implicit tension between the need for more deliberative and inclusive project design, as called for in the paper, and for a rapid regional response to the present fossil-fuelled shock.</p>
<p>These are excellent points and should be contemplated by Pacific leaders at their upcoming meeting.</p>
<p>But if we accept the current state of play is neither economically, environmentally nor politically sustainable, it follows that a more careful approach to renewables – as could be enabled by the new commissioner – could help, not hinder, regional energy security.</p>
<p><a href="https://pacificsecurity.net/policy-paper/how-an-energy-transition-commissioner-can-secure-the-pacifics-renewable-energy-future-cleaner-power-with-the-people/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>How an energy transition commissioner can secure the Pacific’s renewable energy future: cleaner power, with the people</strong></a><strong><em> is the latest release in the Pacific Security College’s Policy Paper Series. </em></strong><a href="https://pacificsecurity.net/policy-paper-series/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong><em>The papers</em></strong></a><strong><em> aim to contribute a diversity of views and ideas to the regional conversation about the journey to 2050.</em></strong></p>
<p><strong><em>Hugo Temby</em></strong><em> is a research fellow at the Pacific Security College, where his work investigates the social dimensions of the energy transition in Pacific Island countries.</em></p>
<hr />
<p>Views expressed via the Pacific Wayfinder blog are not necessarily those of the Pacific Security College. Read <a href="https://pacificsecurity.net/publishing-policy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our publishing policy</a>.</p>

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		<title>How an energy transition commissioner can secure the Pacific&#8217;s renewable energy future: cleaner power, with the people</title>
		<link>https://pacificsecurity.net/policy-paper/how-an-energy-transition-commissioner-can-secure-the-pacifics-renewable-energy-future-cleaner-power-with-the-people/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Megan Dingwall]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2026 06:28:36 +0000</pubDate>
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<li>The 2026 Middle East crisis highlights the need for cheaper, more secure and cleaner energy in Pacific Island Countries – but delivering the regional roll-out of renewables needs more resourcing, coordination and trust.</li>
<li>A new Pacific energy commissioner could be a game changer.</li>
<li>Leaders should aim big and empower the new commissioner to act as an impartial energy adviser to Pacific governments and communities, and to better coordinate the organisations that support them.</li>
<li>The overarching aim should be to facilitate a more timely and equitable energy transition.</li>
</ul>

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																								<h2>Executive summary</h2>
<p>Successive fuel shocks from ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East underscore the inherent risks of continued fossil fuel reliance – in the Pacific as elsewhere.</p>
<p>The push by Pacific governments to increase their renewable energy deployment has the potential to reduce these risks and deliver several wider benefits.</p>
<p>But calls to accelerate the transition have not yet been met with sufficient coordination or resourcing. As a result, early efforts have been uneven and have sometimes led to poor economic, environmental and social outcomes.</p>
<p>A new energy commissioner, whose terms of reference will be considered by Pacific Islands Forum Leaders in 2026, could be a game changer.</p>
<p>Leaders should aim big.</p>
<p>The new commissioner should be an impartial energy adviser to Pacific governments and communities, and better coordinate the organisations that support them. Their aim should be to facilitate a more timely and equitable energy transition. Leaders should also consider a title for the commissioner that reflects the role’s holistic brief. This paper recommends <em>Pacific Energy Transition Commissioner</em>.</p>
<p>Four proposed priority areas will help the commissioner address common issues in the renewables roll-out and ensure greater benefits for Pacific energy users. These are: securing investment, delivering innovative solutions, promoting more sustainable management of renewable energy assets, and advancing inclusive approaches to the design and delivery of renewables projects. Most will require close coordination with other agencies.</p>
<p>The commissioner must also be set up to succeed through fit-for-purpose governance arrangements.</p>
<p>A multi-year, untied funding contribution of FJ$18 million in total over four years should be considered, sufficient for the commissioner, a professional staff and a modest program budget. Staff should include a lead with expertise in each of the four priority areas (investment facilitation; procurement/logistics; engineering/technical; and community energy/energy access) as well as an office manager.</p>
<p>Building on experience with the Pacific Ocean Commissioner, the new commissioner should report directly to leaders and join existing Council of Regional Organisations of the Pacific coordination mechanisms. Leaders should also consider establishing a broad-based advisory body, modelled on the Pacific Ocean Alliance, to advise the new commissioner on emerging issues.</p>
<p>To build regional ownership, the new commissioner must connect with their wider constituency, including Pacific energy users such as householders and businesses.</p>
<p>The model for the new commissioner should also evolve over time in response to changing circumstances and stakeholder feedback. Leaders should consider in the future whether to task the commissioner with an independent redress mechanism for community members who have been negatively impacted by energy infrastructure.</p>
<p>Energy is ultimately important because it can support people’s needs and aspirations.</p>
<p>So it is crucial the new commissioner is equipped, and resourced, to address the transition holistically: as a social as well as technical and economic concern.</p>
<p>Securing the Pacific’s energy future requires no less.</p>
<hr>
<h2>In conversation with</h2>
<p><strong>Cherol Ala Ianna</strong></p>
<p>Director-General, Ministry of Youth, Justice and Community Services, Vanuatu</p>
<p><strong>Toleafoa Annie Tuisuga</strong></p>
<p>Manager, Environment and Renewable Energy Division, Scientific Research Organisation of Samoa</p>
<p><strong>Associate Professor Paul Munro</strong></p>
<p>Environment and Society Group, University of New South Wales</p></p>

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																								<h3>About the Pacific Security College Policy Paper Series</h3>
<p>This paper is published by the Pacific Security College. It reflects the views of the author alone and isn&#8217;t an official statement on behalf of the College, its funders, or the Australian National University. The Policy Paper Series aims to contribute a diversity of views and ideas to the regional conversation about the journey to 2050.</p>

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		<title>New paper calls for renewed attention on land security in the Pacific</title>
		<link>https://pacificsecurity.net/media-release/new-paper-calls-for-renewed-attention-on-land-security-in-the-pacific/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Megan Dingwall]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 23:43:22 +0000</pubDate>
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																								<p>Land governance must be restored as a central pillar of regional peace and security efforts in the Pacific, according to a new paper released by the Pacific Security College.</p>
<p>Authored by Dr Anna Naupa, a Senior Research and Engagement Fellow at the Pacific Security College, <em><a href="https://pacificsecurity.net/policy-paper/land-a-fault-line-for-pacific-peace-and-security/">Land: a fault line for Pacific peace and security?</a></em> says the region must renew its attention on land security.</p>
<p>“As climate change reshapes coastlines, affects food systems and forces communities to relocate, land is becoming a critical security issue. It underpins identity, livelihoods, governance and community cohesion, yet it has become increasingly absent from regional security discussions,” Dr Naupa said.</p>
<p>“This has created a vacuum in regard to regional land policy.”</p>
<p>Dr Naupa proposes several initiatives to strengthen the consideration of land in regional peace and security efforts, including:</p>
<ul>
<li>refocusing on land and its centrality to Pacific peoples’ identity and belonging</li>
<li>reintroducing land governance as a critical component of regional peace and security discussions</li>
<li>using the development of the Regional Peace and Security Action Plan to formally recognise the role of plural land governance systems</li>
<li>using the annual <em>Pacific Security Outlook Report </em>to spotlight pressing land policy issues.</li>
</ul>
<p>“Sustainable access to and management of land are fundamental for the environmental, human and livelihood security of Pacific peoples,” Dr Naupa said.</p>
<p>“Developing regional collective actions within a Regional Peace and Security Action Plan presents an opportunity to focus on how land governance systems could contribute to regional goals for peace, prosperity and security.”</p>
<p><em>Land: a fault line for Pacific peace and security?</em> includes responses from four regional experts: Karen Mapusua, George Hoa’au, Vehia Wheeler and Dr Akka Rimon.</p>
<p>Ms Mapusua, Director of the Land Resources Division at the Pacific Community, said the paper highlighted a critical gap in the discourse on security and resilience in the region.</p>
<p>“Donor institutions, development banks and regional policy frameworks routinely approach land as a <em>resource</em>. Pacific peoples, however, have long understood land as something far more elemental: not as an asset to be exploited, but the very ground of identity and belonging,” she said.</p>
<p>“Food insecurity and hunger are drivers of social unrest. When people cannot feed themselves, and cannot afford healthy imported alternatives, the crisis is real. As climate-related relocation, urbanisation, non-agricultural developments such as tourism, and population growth put pressure on arable land, these issues will grow.”</p>
<p>Mr Hoa’au, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and External Trade, Solomon Islands, said there was much to be learned from national policies regarding land.</p>
<p>“We need more regional knowledge exchange so we can learn from each other,” he said.</p>
<p>“They are not abstract practices; they are already happening. But our regional security efforts must catch up. We need to look to these national lessons, codify them and incorporate them into regional policies and planning.”</p>
<p>Ms Wheeler, a Ma’ohi Nui scholar and environmental and cultural consultant at Sustainable Oceania Solutions, reflected on the lessons from the past, including nuclear testing and its impact on land and oceans, and subsequently on food security and displacement.</p>
<p>“Without secure, healthy land and ocean space for people to practise traditional management, agriculture and fishing, we create vulnerable societies,” she said.</p>
<p>“Furthermore, the Pacific can look to the history of several communities that have experienced similar issues of displacement due to factors out of their control. Our past can, and should, inform our future.”</p>
<p>Dr Rimon, a Senior Research Fellow at the Pacific Security College, said Dr Naupa’s paper highlights that land remains the spiritual, relational and cultural foundation of society.</p>
<p>“This worldview underscores why land insecurity, whether driven by climate change, economic shocks or poorly informed policies, could potentially undermine Pacific peace and security,” she said.</p>
<p>“As climate impacts intensify and mobility pressures rise, the region faces mounting challenges of land scarcity, contested tenure and undermined sovereignty. Naupa’s call to foreground land-rooted security is therefore both timely and urgent.”</p>
<h3>About the Pacific Security College policy paper series</h3>
<p>The <a href="https://pacificsecurity.net/policy-paper-series/">Pacific Security College’s policy paper series</a> aims to contribute a diversity of views and ideas to regional conversations about the journey to 2050. The views expressed in the Pacific Security College policy papers are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of the College.</p>

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			Land: a fault line for Pacific peace and security?
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		<title>Leaders call for regional collaboration amid growing global instability and climate impacts</title>
		<link>https://pacificsecurity.net/media-release/leaders-call-for-regional-collaboration-amid-growing-global-instability-and-climate-impacts/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Megan Dingwall]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2026 23:09:09 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://pacificsecurity.net/?post_type=media-release&#038;p=4845</guid>

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																								<p>Leaders from three intergovernmental organisations have emphasised the need for strong cooperation to uphold international law and respond to growing geopolitical uncertainty and the impacts of climate change.</p>
<p>Speaking at the 2026 Pacific Peace and Security Dialogue, a panel of representatives from ASEAN, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the Pacific Islands Forum discussed the role such organisations can play in the global order and the importance of working together to address shared challenges.</p>
<p><em>‘Regional cooperation in the Pacific and beyond’</em> featured Secretary-General of the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Assembly, His Excellency Dr Chem Widhya; Assistant Secretary General, Foreign and Community Relations at the CARICOM Secretariat, Elizabeth Solomon; and Deputy Secretary General &#8211; Strategic Policy and Programming at the Pacific Islands Forum, Esala Nayasi. It was moderated by Professor Dave Peebles, Director of the Pacific Security College.</p>
<p>Dr Widhya said it was important for regional organisations to work together, particularly to ensure the rule of law and in the light of challenges such as reduced financing to the United Nations.</p>
<p>“I sense it as a duty that regional organisations have to band together and to embrace each other in order to save our common house, the planet,” he said.</p>
<p>Dr Widhya said an issue for the international community now was deciding whether to choose “right is might or might is right” and how this impacted the security of smaller states.</p>
<p>“Smaller states that do not have big armies, they do not have missiles and nuclear weapons, so therefore they would embrace right is might, because when ‘right’ rule, then there is a sense of equity before law, before justice. That would be the framework, [it] would be guaranteeing the safety of the citizens, social harmony, and long-term prosperity,” he said.</p>
<p>“We know that when ‘might is right’, the big [states] take all, at all costs. This leaves the door open for many precedences near and far; when the bigger feel hungry and eat the smaller ones.”</p>
<p>Ms Solomon shared Dr Chem’s concerns over growing geopolitical pressures and raised the various ways they have been felt in the Caribbean.</p>
<p>“We have also had in the region, for the first time, military presence, like physical military presence of large warships, the bombing of boats out of the water in international waters. So, there is a complete attack on international rule of law,” she said.</p>
<p>“International rule of law is based on trust between states and upholding agreements made donkeys years ago, and that we are having real challenges dealing with and have no pushback really, except to rally around and to become more visible within the international, multilateral spaces and more coordinated with CARICOM.”</p>
<p>Ms Solomon highlighted the election of two CARICOM members as non-permanent members of the United Nations Security Council: Guyana, which concluded its term in December 2025 and held the presidency in February 2024 and June 2025, and Trinidad and Tobago, which has secured a seat on the council from 2027 to 2028 and will serve as president in March 2027.</p>
<p>“So, we punch above our weight, as you do in the Pacific,” she said.</p>
<p>Ms Solomon said a major issue for their region was addressing the impacts of climate change, particularly accessing financing and managing loss and damage.</p>
<p>“The hurricanes have become so profound that the last one was a category five plus. We just simply don&#8217;t have the capacity to build to mitigate against that, and the debt that that causes any member state to recover from is just incredible,” she said.</p>
<p>Mr Nayasi agreed that access to climate finance continued to be an issue for Pacific Island countries.</p>
<p>“There&#8217;s a lot of regional initiatives that we&#8217;ve also been able to advance…but obviously we are limited by resources, and it continues to be a challenge in terms of access. But as a way to mitigate that, leaders have agreed on the establishment of the Pacific Resilience Facility, one that is owned by the Pacific, one that reflects our values, one that also defines the way that we would want to deal with the issue,” he said.</p>
<p>Mr Nayasi acknowledged initiatives championed by the Pacific, including the International Court of Justice advisory opinion and the recent UN General Assembly resolution. He said COP31 would be an opportunity for the Pacific to continue to advocate for its priorities.</p>
<p>“There&#8217;s a lot that we have achieved in this area, but at the same time, there&#8217;s a lot that we still need to address,” he said.</p>
<p>Dr Widhya said ASEAN members were also affected by the impacts of climate change and sea level rise.</p>
<p>“On one side we have the rise of the sea, so…Indonesia is building now more than 1000 kilometres [of] wall in the north of Indonesia, but you see also cities sinking; Bangkok is sinking, Jakarta is sinking, Ho Chi Minh City is sinking,” he said.</p>
<p>Dr Widhya highlighted the link to food security, as witnessed in Vietnam where salt water was coming into the land and destroying crops, and energy security. He said ASEAN had worked to coordinate energy and food policy to address the issues across the region.</p>
<p>“When there&#8217;s no more ice, there&#8217;s no more water, we will see a lot of arid terrain. Food will become scarce. Potable water will become very scarce. So, we have to be very alert,” he said.</p>
<p>“We have to be very proactive and try to come together in order to try to save the world.”</p>
<p>The panellists also discussed free movement agreements within and beyond their respective regions.</p>
<p>Ms Solomon said free movement had been “elusive” for CARICOM, but some members (Barbados, Belize, Dominica, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines) had initiated arrangements to address the labour challenges associated with ageing populations.</p>
<p>“The issues that the member states leaders have been addressing is the comparative capacity to provide basic social services equally in all of the member states, but there have also been some moral issues. Some member states don&#8217;t want to recognise, for instance, same-sex marriage, so those are details that slowly have to be worked out,” she said.</p>
<p>“The exercise of the four that have decided to go, it has really helped to show that it&#8217;s not a scary thing. It&#8217;s not thousands of people banging on your door and demanding free health care. It&#8217;s actually quite a slow [process], people adjusting and wanting to move because they want to work and because they want to experience their neighbours.”</p>
<p>Dr Widhya said the ASEAN model encouraged the free movement of skilled labour.</p>
<p>“We have also strived to have within ASEAN, a pool of excellence in education, in order that the graduates could find jobs in all ASEAN member states without any discrimination. So, the pool of excellence in education is extremely important to us.”</p>
<p>Mr Nayasi said it was acknowledged at several levels, including by the region’s economic ministers, that the free movement of people was a critical step to economic integration.</p>
<p>“How do we then begin to look at pathways and ensuring that our people are able to live better lives through some of the opportunities that we provide?” he said.</p>
<p>“The issue that we have now, particularly for some of our countries, is probably not deliberate, but the cooperation between the ASEAN region and in the Pacific, there&#8217;s inflow of a lot of labourers from the ASEAN region, feeding into our labour force challenges. So, there&#8217;s a need for us to also begin to think about opportunities that we have across the region.”</p>

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		<title>Health, crime and crisis: the Pacific&#8217;s methamphetamine challenge</title>
		<link>https://pacificsecurity.net/podcast/health-crime-and-crisis-the-pacifics-methamphetamine-challenge/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Megan Dingwall]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Jun 2026 02:03:29 +0000</pubDate>
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																								<p>Rising drug use is contributing to an evolving HIV epidemic, presenting significant challenges for governments, health systems and communities across the Blue Pacific.</p>
<p>On this episode of the Pacific Wayfinder podcast, Chair of the Fiji National HIV outbreak Taskforce, Dr Jason Mitchell, and Head of the Pacific Programme at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, Virginia Comolli, join Pacific Security College Academic Fellow Dr Nicholas Thomson for a topical discussion on the HIV epidemic and drug crisis facing the region.</p>
<p>They consider the need for a cross-sectoral approach involving health, law enforcement and communities to address the crisis, and look at the challenges facing on-the-ground health responses and the need to prioritise human rights and compassion towards victims of the drug and HIV epidemic.</p>

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								<div class="prose pb-10 lg:pr-40 text-base"><p><strong>Podcast season one 2026</strong></p>
<p><strong>Akka Rimon</strong> 00:04<br />
Welcome to the Pacific Wayfinder podcast, your guide to navigating the cross currents of security in the Blue Pacific continent.</p>
<p><strong>Dr Nicholas Thomson  </strong>00:05</p>
<p>Bula, Bula vinaka, ni sa bula. Kia ora, and I hope you are all well. To all our listeners across the Pacific, and wherever you may be, you have joined the Pacific Security Colleges Pacific Wayfinder podcast series, and we are very, very fortunate today to be here with a couple of very special guests to kind of to discuss an issue, which is clearly gaining an enormous amount of attention, rightfully so, in the context of the Pacific, and that is the Pacific methamphetamine crisis. This is particularly a critical issue because it affects every part of society, and really speaks to those broader definitions of health and human security, and of course, subnational, national, and regional security architecture as well. So, before we go too far here, I&#8217;d just like to introduce my co-podcast guest today, and I&#8217;m joined by terrific colleague and friend over many years, Virginia Kamali, who is a the Pacific Island director, Pacific Program Director for the Global Initiative on Transnational Organized Crime, and we&#8217;re also joined by Jason, Dr. Jason Mitchell, who is the chair of the National HIV Task force in Fiji, in the Ministry of of Health and Medical Medical Services, and just on the back of this, you know, the reason we&#8217;re kind of, this is pertinent for the podcast today is that the Pacific Security College, and indeed myself, Dr. Nicholas Thompson, the health advisor at the Pacific Security College, in collaboration with with Virginia, have released a policy paper, part of our policy paper series, titled Turning the Tide, you know, working on Pacific&#8217;s methamphetamine crisis together. So, this is that provides the backdrop to where we are at. And before we go too far along, I&#8217;d like our two guests to introduce themselves and to kind of just give us a little bit of their own context in regards to methamphetamine in the Pacific, and why we would be sitting here talking about it, and kind of proposing some big structural ideas. So, first of all, to the you, Virginia, and an opening survey from you.</p>
<p><strong>Virginia Comolli  </strong>02:18</p>
<p>Well, thank you very much, Nick. It is a pleasure to be joining you and Dr. Jason Mitchell on this podcast, and have been the opportunity to discuss such a topical and critical issue. I look at this from the perspective of transnational crime, and over the past few years, we&#8217;ve seen a transformation across the Pacific Islands regions in terms of the intensification and sophistication of transnational organized crime activities, and I would argue that the most transformative impacts of all has been the one of methamphetamine trafficking, which has multiple repercussions on all aspects of public and private lives for Pacific Islands, so I&#8217;m really, really glad we had the opportunity to put our heads together and come up with a roadmap, which will no doubt discuss in a minute on how to tackle this crisis going forward.</p>
<p><strong>Dr Nicholas Thomson  </strong>03:16</p>
<p>Thank you very much. And Dr. Jason Mitchell, it&#8217;s a real pleasure to have you here. We understand just how busy you are, particularly now, but in general, and if you may give us some of your opening perspectives on methamphetamine, not only in Fiji, but what you&#8217;re kind of seeing is potentially lying ahead for the region.</p>
<p><strong>Dr Jason Mitchell  </strong>03:35</p>
<p>Well, Nicholas, and great to be with you and Virginia on the podcast this afternoon. By way of background, I&#8217;m Fijian, currently leading Fiji&#8217;s STI, HIV, and Balkan virus response. Fiji has a very rapidly evolving HIV epidemic that is linked to risky behavior that is associated with intravenous drug use and methamphetamines, as Virginia and yourself have mentioned, is one of the most popular drugs that is currently being used in Fiji amongst intravenous drug users, but it&#8217;s the risky behavior that they&#8217;re involved with that is leading to the rapid rise of HIV infections and hepatitis C in our population. Somebody who&#8217;s worked in the Pacific with around HIV and STIs over 30 years. I am well aware of early signs of other countries starting to report increased rates of HIV infection beyond what they would normally see, and of course, some of those countries where CG was a number of years ago, where they were initially transit sites for transnational movement of drugs, and eventually the people in those countries will start using drugs, and that&#8217;s where sort of we come in from health, because it leads to a number of health issues that you know it&#8217;s important for us to respond with strong public health interventions. So maybe I&#8217;ll stop there. And hopefully we can talk a little bit more about some of the issues moving forward.</p>
<p><strong>Dr Nicholas Thomson  </strong>05:03</p>
<p>Oh, yes, I think we&#8217;re very, very lucky to have you both here. Virginia, you&#8217;ve been watching this for a number of years now, and I think a lot of us have kind of seen the emergence of synthetic drugs, and particularly crystal methamphetamine, the diversification of the different transnational organized crime groups, and whether they&#8217;re coming together or not. The particular just like you to just to maybe explore a bit more the particular vulnerabilities in the Pacific, and why, why the Pacific seems to be, you know, not only, you know, such a peaceful place, particularly from above, but, but now almost the the epicenter of of movement of narcotics.</p>
<p><strong>Virginia Comolli  </strong>05:47</p>
<p>Yeah, thanks, Nick. Yeah, I mean, the changes over the past few years in the criminal landscape have been really incredible and very, very concerning for a very long time, the Pacific Islands have acted as transit points for drugs coming from Asia and Latin America, and that&#8217;s in for Australia and New Zealand, which, as we know, are very, very lucrative drug markets. If you want to sell your drugs, you definitely want to get a share of those markets, because these are the places where drugs are the most expensive, and so the Pacific Islands, being in the midpoint along those supply chains, of course, have been long used as transit points. What we have seen, however, more recently is how those countries, countries like Fiji, for instance, have actually started to develop their own domestic market consumptions, and this first started off because traffickers, foreign traffickers collaborating with local facilitators, had begun instead of paying them with cash, they would pay them in produce. So let&#8217;s say they were asking local collaborators to ship 20 kilos of methamphetamines, and they would say to them, well, you can keep five for yourselves. And then, of course, there wasn&#8217;t much of an understanding what to do with that, those those drugs, but that&#8217;s how they started to to enter the domestic markets, and how local people started to to use those those drugs. And for me, one of the transformative elements that really had made such a big difference is the growing influx of foreign criminal criminal groups, criminals from Southeast Asia, from China, and from and from the Americas, and indeed actually now the bulk of the methamphetamines are actually coming from the Americas, and the influx of these highly sophisticated, highly organized criminal actors that are also often involved in polycriminality, meaning that they are involved in different types of criminal activities, are now active in the Pacific, and not only that, they&#8217;re also collaborating. Traditionally, some of these groups would be rivals, would be competing over the control for the supply chain or drug markets, and now they&#8217;re working together, so this is just a business for them, of course. This is driven by financial profit, so they understand that they all have different strengths to bring to the table. So, you might have one criminal group that&#8217;s in charge of one segment of the supply chain for drugs, and and is collaborating with another one, will be responsible for another segment of that supply chain, and this is very problematic, because, of course, it makes it very hard for law enforcement to tackle them, and not to mention that there is also an overlap between the illicit and leases sectors, because it&#8217;s a common practice for for criminals to also hide their activities behind the facade of legitimate businesses, which are also handy for money laundering perspective, so really we&#8217;ve seen an increased number of criminal actors from from different foreign countries, more sophisticated techniques and methods for for smuggling and the collaboration among these actors, which in many cases have resulted in local law enforcement agencies being overwhelmed by all these criminal challenges.</p>
<p><strong>Dr Nicholas Thomson  </strong>09:14</p>
<p>Thank you, Virginia. And I think when you reflect on the Pacific as a geographical region, we know very much, so that that it is an enormous blue ocean, and to try to run surveillance detection enforcement in such space is incredibly difficult. So, with that in mind, and this enormous availability, we, I&#8217;ll turn to Jason to kind of speak to maybe say four or five years ago, Jason, and what you were really worried about then versus what you&#8217;re clearly really worried about now, because Fiji itself has become the fastest growing epidemic of HIV in the world, and it&#8217;s largely driven by injecting. Drug use behavior, which we never thought we would see, to be completely honest, in the age of in the Pacific, having worked on injecting drug epidemics, particularly across Asia, we never particularly worried 20 years ago about the Pacific, and here we are, and I just maybe, if you got some insights into just how this was transitioning, and, and where you see things right now in the context of Fiji.</p>
<p><strong>Dr Jason Mitchell  </strong>10:34</p>
<p>there was evidence from the data that we can see the rates of HIV economically from HIV perspective, because you know we have full understanding of the epidemic currently in terms of the numbers, and we could see them from about 2022 that the numbers started to increase faster than what we were used to, but I&#8217;m mindful of how unreliable it might be to make it what was happening then, given we were just coming out of Covid, so perhaps you know if things were changing during Covid, maybe pre-covered, like most of the most people were relying on international reports to tell us what was actually going on in Dee Gene a couple of years back, and what we can see is that at some point in time, like the rate started to go up very quickly, so since 2019 up until the end of last year, 2025 increase in HIV infections in TG compared to these years. That&#8217;s really rapid, a rapid increase in cases being diagnosed in our country. Now, remember that cases diagnosed is only a fraction of people who you know actually have HIV, which is something we&#8217;ve always known since the beginning of the epidemic. People being diagnosed at just a fraction of the larger cohort of people living with HIV. So last year we had 2090 16 people diagnosed with HIV, compared to the previous year, which was 1583 cases, and the year before that was, you know, 416 so you can see how very rapidly, and so I think for us, we know something going on on the ground, and we&#8217;re just simply making sense of all of this linked to the transasta communal stuff that the business has talked about, you know, the criminality that currently in the country, the fact that we now have our own domestic markets for drug use, and that is reflected in our rates of food quality. Maybe one of the things that we probably don&#8217;t know a lot about is about how it&#8217;s affecting us in other areas of health, beyond HIV and hepatitis C, increase in people being admitted to our psychiatric hospital here as a result of drug-induced psychosis, or people with severe mental health crisis, and a lot of that is linked to drug use, much more than they&#8217;ve ever seen in the past. We know not, we know from our clinical colleagues that they&#8217;re seeing lots of very severe skin sepsis infections, blood-borne viruses, in addition to HIV, such as hepatitis C. We have outbreaks of hepatitis C in this country, but we don&#8217;t have a good sense of what, how big that is, and a lot of it is very much linked to the high-risk behavior that is associated with intravenous drug use, and so you know, I think we&#8217;re still in the early days of understanding a lot about this, and the numbers behind this, but certainly it is overwhelming our health system, and Fiji is not a poor country, but it&#8217;s certainly not a rich country, and we are feeding it in our health services.</p>
<p><strong>Dr Nicholas Thomson  </strong>13:36</p>
<p>Yeah, I mean it&#8217;s a critical juncture in time, for sure, in terms of the epidemic itself, Jason, and of course the sequelae effects of unsafe injecting the skin lesions you&#8217;re talking about, and the comment around because of the epidemic in Fiji, and you&#8217;re right in that in the hot seat on this, in so many ways, you&#8217;re constantly kind of talking around the HIV epidemic itself, the need to for testing, for treatment, for for prep, for peer, peer intervention, for harm reduction, for this, for that, outside of, of, of the viral, the virus implications, just, you know, can you maybe just kind of reflect at the kind of the village level, the community level. What else are you seeing happening that is challenging your, you know, your local health and community leaders?</p>
<p><strong>Dr Jason Mitchell  </strong>14:35</p>
<p>I think it&#8217;s the social impacts of people who use drugs and how those have an impact on families. A lot of what we know is really anecdotal. It&#8217;s the stuff that gets sensationalized and reported in the media. So, I don&#8217;t &#8211; I don&#8217;t propose to suggest what is actually going on on the ground, because I don&#8217;t actually know. I&#8217;m just like most people find out secondhand from whatever. The other people are telling us, but it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s sufficient enough to worry our traditional leaders in this country. The great companies have put it as one of the very important agenda items that they want to address as a group of people. Our leaders, our political leaders, who are elected into their positions, our prime minister and other ministers are concerned about it, because it is reflected in what their constituents are telling them, is a concern for them, you know, it&#8217;s I don&#8217;t know what came first, associate social issues leading to drug use, or drug use leading to social issues, whatever it is, it is a cycle that is one affecting the other and the other ones affecting the other, it makes people desperate, their use is pretty people desperate, making them, in addition to their high-risk drug use behavior, is making them engage for the need to get more access to drugs in other high-risk selling steps, for example, or using drugs in order to sell sex, and then it becomes a cycle.</p>
<p><strong>Dr Nicholas Thomson  </strong>16:03</p>
<p>Yeah, and so just as I asked Jason, there, Virginia, the bigger picture, the broader health surveillance, the need for that, that the fact that this is being talked about at the highest levels of leadership, both in Fiji and beyond, of course, around the region. Can you also maybe reflect from your experiences and conversations around, you know, what local law enforcement are seeing in the local communities, and and what they&#8217;re saying, and what they&#8217;re saying that they need.</p>
<p><strong>Virginia Comolli  </strong>16:30</p>
<p>Yes, as Dr. Jason was mentioning, so the impacts on communities are very, very significant, and from a law enforcement perspective, there is also an increase in all other crime types, and be not organized crime, but assaults and thefts and robbery. You just need to talk to a taxi driver in Fiji, and he will tell you that chances are they&#8217;ve been assaulted, they&#8217;ve been robbed by someone who was trying to feed their addictions, so this has, of course, repercussions for community, community trust, community, community cohesion, to the point that my understanding is that some communities have introduced some bylaws to try and encounter some of these effects on their communities, whereby if you are known to be a drug user, you&#8217;re being kicked out. These, however, one could argue that there can be quite problematic responses, because if someone who is already a vulnerable person, a drug user, all of a sudden is ostracized from their community, they&#8217;re on their own. So, what&#8217;s going to happen to them? They might become homeless women or girls might turn to sex work to support themselves, so in a way that is displacing the problem really without fixing it, unless those individuals have access to forms of support, but I guess these measures that have been introduced, and we may agree or disagree with their effectiveness are symptomatic of the fact that everyone from police policy circles, health, of course, or civil societies, traditional governance structures, everyone is trying to do something about the drug crisis in Fiji, in particular, because there is a recognition that the problem has escalated to two levels never seen before, with really repercussions rippling across so many aspects of life.</p>
<p><strong>Dr Nicholas Thomson  </strong>18:37</p>
<p>Yeah, no, absolutely, and I think in many ways, it&#8217;s kind of what you know drove, drove, you know, you and I, and, and our colleagues to kind of put forward this, you know, the paper that was, that was released by the Pacific Security College, of which you&#8217;re a co-author, you know, turning that, you know, turning the tide together, and this idea that, that while we have, you know, methamphetamine and drugs more generally recognized in Pacific Island Forum leaders meetings, recognized in heads of health meetings at a regional level, being recognized versus what do we do next is really the step, and I think we&#8217;ve proposed some ideas for that, and Virginia, before we kind of trying to go too far, I was wondering if you might kind of reflect and kind of lay out what some of those big ideas are in the policy paper, and then we might ask Jason to, as someone from the outside of the production of the paper, to see what he thinks and how we might go about it, so Virginia, first, maybe just as a co-author, which was a pleasure. If you could, could lay out what we&#8217;re, what we&#8217;ve been calling for.</p>
<p><strong>Virginia Comolli  </strong>19:48</p>
<p>Of course, I think really cognizant of what we said just now, you know, all these wider implications. It&#8217;s really, we, our starting point was that we needed to. Bring all these different stakeholders together, if we wanted to really design approaches that are sustainable, are likely to succeed in the fight against this methamphetamine crisis, so relying on existing mechanisms in terms of regional organizations and structures, declarations, and also the regional strategy to counter transnational crime, we put forward the idea for a Pacific Islands Forum led regional summit on health and security implications of methamphetamine use and trafficking, and in our paper we really wanted to lay down the road map on how to get to that summit, and the summit would be a bring together reinforcement policy, health, civil societies, churches, NGOs, traditional traditional leaders, and in laying up a roadmap on how to get there, we really looked at the importance of strengthening the regional evidence base in terms of better understanding patterns of prevalence and use of methamphetamines and other synthetic drugs, the getting a better understanding of trafficking routes, any existing prevention and treatment and harm reduction responses and their effectiveness, but also engaging in dialog with with with multiple sectors of societies, in engaging with civil society actors, youth groups, traditional leaders, churches, and really learning from existing grassroots level approaches that might be there. It might be helpful in responding to two drugs, and really then feeding all this evidence into existing and upcoming regional meetings of heads of health, the Pacific Islands Chiefs of Police, and other, you know, relevant for forum across the region, and then gathering all this information and use it to build the agenda for these regional summit on methamphetamines, and then we don&#8217;t want that summit, of course, just to be a talking shop, we actually wanted to use the conclusions coming out of that summit to then lead to the design of a regional strategy against synthetic drugs. Well, against actually, I should say, against methamphetamines, but then we wanted to be flexible enough to be able to be implemented in the case that other synthetic drugs get introduced into the into the region, so really this is a whole of society regional approach and cross sectoral approach, and I guess just the fact that the three of us are on the on this podcast talking about this, and we of course look at this problem from our different professional perspectives really talks to speaks to the fact that this is an issue that really requires the engagement of different sectors and perspectives in order to really develop effective responses.</p>
<p><strong>Dr Nicholas Thomson  </strong>23:17</p>
<p>Absolutely, thank you, Virginia and Jason, when you kind of, when you, you&#8217;ve kind of worked your way through, through, through the paper, which you know is not, not a, it&#8217;s not long, it&#8217;s not kind of difficult, we kind of, you know, put forward, you know, this, this idea that you know, if we can kind of bring the two security and health major regional platforms together to kind of oversee, you know, the gathering and the learnings from across national and sub national, across the Pacific, and you sit there in your position, Jason, in the midst of of what&#8217;s going on, you yourself, you know, you sit in in cross agency meetings, particularly with law enforcement, not only about drugs policy, but about, you know, harm reduction interventions as well. And I think you&#8217;re in a really unique position to see, okay, guys, if you want to, you want to do this. How do you? I&#8217;ll give you some perspectives from Fiji about what it&#8217;s like to bring health and security and civil society together, and maybe some of the challenges, and then, and then maybe some reflections about what, what we might be able to learn if we are able to, you know, to work with with stakeholders to, you know, bring this together for 2027 regional summit.</p>
<p><strong>Dr Jason Mitchell  </strong>24:36</p>
<p>Thank you, Chris. I am, I&#8217;m more and more every day, the more work I do around crime and its impacts on health, the importance of both the two different sectors working together, but I can&#8217;t imagine, like, just our learnings from Covid, the police work, you know, and other. Law enforcement agencies were very much part of the response, because they all had &#8211; we all had a role to play, but with regards to the drug situation and its impact on health, we&#8217;re in completely different schools. So, because we&#8217;re having conversations about legal protections for us as public health workers to introduce harm reduction, which includes needles and syringes. We&#8217;re having to talk to people we would normally not need to talk to about public health interventions, but we are asking for permission to do something which, in their view, is considered aiding and abetting in a crime. And from our perspective, public health people, we see what we&#8217;re trying to do as simply a public health intervention to prevent infections from from occurring, and in our view, looking from our pieces of legislation that sit under health, such as the Public Health Act or the HIV Act, there are sufficient provisions in there that allow us to do these things, but it seems to clash with what our law and justice and our law enforcement agents are actually needing to uphold from their perspective, so what we&#8217;re having to do is there&#8217;s two parallel systems. We&#8217;re speaking to the leadership on both sides, so me, as a policy person on behalf of the ministry, are speaking to people on law enforcement, law agencies, and helping them understand the need for these climate action interventions. So suddenly the top people are talking, and they all agree that we should be working together, but the people at the bottom are still not aware that they need to be in line. We need to all be on the same page with regards to the programs we need to introduce, so we are starting to recognize that we all need to be on the same page on the health side, and from more injustice and more enforcement, but throughout from the top of the hierarchy all the way down to those who are in the field, and right now that&#8217;s not happening. We are still, we agree in principle that we need to work together. We agree in principle about the need for our public health interventions, and they agree in principle that they need to let go on certain things, so that we can do our public health work, but in reality they just can&#8217;t imagine how that will, how that will happen in practice, because they themselves need to uphold certain things, certain pieces of legislation, and provisions of those legislation, and I think we&#8217;re going to continue to clash until we&#8217;re all on the same page from the very top all the way down to implementation, and I think that&#8217;s where</p>
<p><strong>Dr Nicholas Thomson  </strong>27:25</p>
<p>we are, Jason. It&#8217;s a, it&#8217;s a cautionary tale, and I think you know, as a public health person myself, and working on the on the HIV epidemic among stroke users across Asia, you know, between say 2002 1015 and 15, you know, there&#8217;s some real parallel lessons in what you&#8217;re saying, and I might just kind of lay out very quickly some of those, those things, and the similarities across the Mekong, that you know, Thailand, Lao, and Cambodia, we saw a significant increase in the availability of methamphetamine, in that case, it was tablets. Now it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s crystal, same thing, you know, confronting society, you know, cohorts of of young drug users, you know, the media, you know, this person&#8217;s done this, this person&#8217;s done that. The political leadership comes in over the top and says, fine, we need, we need to be tough here, you know, a war on drugs, and, and we see it go really quite the other way, and you know, we&#8217;re sitting there trying to find avenues to work with young people, or drug use, to find out, you know, can we do this, what would work for you, at the same time the broader society is clashing over over the fundamental philosophy of drugs and their use, and you know what I, what I, what I learned there was that the overwhelming popularity of a tough on drugs approach from national government, you know, really, really took us down a difficult road, which was okay. Well, let&#8217;s let&#8217;s arrest, let&#8217;s, let&#8217;s put people through the justice system and into prisons. Now our prisons are full, so what are we going to do? Well, we&#8217;re going to build drug treatment centers, you know. So, so the difference between a prison and a four world drug treatment center back in those days was was not much, you know, young people, particularly who are at high risk of all sorts of of of health behaviors and implications, particularly in a closed setting like a drug detention center, and really at the end of the day, really really getting nowhere, the supply didn&#8217;t stop, and I think so. Alongside that, that Jason, we, you know, what do you do, right? And you sit there in academia, or you sit there in the Department of Health, and, like, okay, well, the police have got no interest in this. The guys right up there in the top of health need more evidence. So let&#8217;s see how we can build evidence, and so in that case we were able to kind of join forces with the narcotics boards across the different countries and say you guys need evidence, not only about the trafficking, we need evidence to around the health and how you, how people were using, so we could design interventions that were community led and community informed, and it kind of led to a maturing of those, those relationships. It doesn&#8217;t make it easier, but I think it led to a maturing, and so you know, one of the things that we call for in the paper, Jason, is this idea that in Fiji we have this, you know, rapidly evolving HIV epidemic. We have needle sharing that is driving it, to the best of our knowledge. We&#8217;re not seeing that in some of the other countries, and so, but that doesn&#8217;t mean we won&#8217;t. But it also means, well, what is happening there? What is distressing them? Are there sexual risks? Are communities breaking down? Are young people being arrested? Are they contemplating compulsory drug detention centers, and so we speak for this need to collate subnational and national kind of evidence, and just wondering from your experience, Jason, how might we, how might we go about that in the Pacific? If you&#8217;re speaking at a regional forum on health, how would what would you, what would you be saying right now from your position and your experience?</p>
<p><strong>Dr Jason Mitchell  </strong>31:26</p>
<p>Well, as a public health person, like I feel one of the, one of the, one of the weaknesses, particularly in our particular area of health, which is HIV and other blood-borne viruses, is we are not very, we&#8217;re not very active, we&#8217;re not very good at looking at what is going on with regards to the epidemic. We don&#8217;t dig into the numbers sufficiently enough to understand what is what is causing the increase in numbers, and like I&#8217;m only purely speaking from a public health perspective, I&#8217;m saying this because I think there are signs that some other countries are starting to show increases in HIV that are beyond what they would normally, and this is where Fiji was almost five years ago, and we should have looked into numbers, and we should have immediately responded with good public health programming to address the new risks and vulnerabilities that were our population was being exposed to. Now, the reason why I&#8217;m harping on and on about this at the Pacific level is because I work across the region as well, and through some voluntary work that I do, and I can see that some countries, which would have had a low HIV epidemic, is starting to show increases of infections, and the alarm bells that are, of course, going on, going off in my wood, because this is what happened to Fiji a number of years ago. Our countries are developing, certainly a country like Fiji, it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s developing very quickly, and people are needing to work long hours, you know, like I worked in Southeast Asia as well, and a lot of our drug users were using drugs because of the type of work that they were doing the long hours, the very horrible underground work in really horrible conditions, and drugs was a way to survive that. And for many of our patients who are HIV positive or hepatitis C positive, that are drug users, a lot of them are started off taking drugs just to cope with work, just to cope with the social issues that they were dealing with, and so we have lots of social issues that are driving this epidemic, these epidemics of HIV, and I think they are leading to other social issues and a lot of other health issues, but our systems are just not catching, just catching up fast enough, and so I feel like I think a lot of what you, you&#8217;re doing in terms of the criminality side of things, and crime, I think it&#8217;s crossing over, and it&#8217;s impacting the social, social issues, and leading to health issues as well, but I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s sufficient capacity in our countries to address a lot of this,</p>
<p><strong>Dr Nicholas Thomson  </strong>33:58</p>
<p>we, we paint a fairly, dare I say, you know, grim is one word, but it feels like we&#8217;re right on the point here of, I mean, crisis does not seem, you know, over an over description of what, what we, what we collectively see happening, not only Fiji, but, but in the region, I think what we would, of course, what we would like to see is if there was, you know, no methamphetamine coming through the Pacific, and the Pacific was, was able to be as it has always been, you know, the wonderful cultures and closeness, and you know, and people really, you know, being able to really have senses of community, and I think you know the insidious nature of this particular drug really kind of breaks down a lot of those senses. The, you know, a friend of mine once said that, you know, Nick, drug policy is really, you know, like the hamburger with the lot, you know. You have a public health pragmatic perspective, you have a religious perspective, you have an ethic perspective, you have a kind of a morals perspective, and everyone feels that feels the need to kind of get their bit in there, but at the end of the day we really need to go where the evidence evidence is, and I&#8217;m glad you know you mentioned Jason, the COVID, you know, COVID time, the COVID period, because that was a time where you know the Pacific Island, you know, the leadership, you know, invoked a bit of COVID declaration and opened up the, you know, opened up the coordination to the humanitarian pathway, and I remember talking with police, you know, across the region about that time, and they were so enthused about, you know, what they had been able to do, you know, they were playing a role in public health, you know, they were doing social distancing work, they were doing this, they were doing that, and you know, unfortunately, you know, HIV has been a platform for so many issues, access to medicine, human rights, you know, stigma, etc. etc. And again, we&#8217;re asking HIV to be the platform to say, &#8220;Oh, hang on a second, you guys, if we don&#8217;t kind of bring these things together and work together, you know, we will, you know, wind up with an epidemic, but not just an epidemic, we&#8217;ll wind up with communities that that are fundamentally challenged. So I think we, you know, we can see these things, and we want to bring this idea of coordinated Pacific leadership across these health and law enforcement and community perspectives, and let us hope we can get there, and we will work as closely as we can with all of you to make that happen. If we, if we were to sum it, and we know how much work you do, Jason, we see you all over in meetings all the time, particularly the one this week, I think, saying that was going to cost $150 million a year just to treat people at this rate in Fiji, if they have HIV, and that is an enormous amount of money to find every year. So, so with those challenges, and, and the, and the politics of responding, you know, what would you like to see, and I&#8217;ll ask you both, where do we go from today to avert what could be in the next five years. So, Virginia, first to you.</p>
<p><strong>Virginia Comolli  </strong>37:34</p>
<p>Yeah, well, as you said a moment ago, this is a very grim outlook, but also I&#8217;d like to look at silver linings here, if it&#8217;s at all possible, and see this as a window of opportunity, because the crisis has gotten so serious, and now there is a genuine understanding across sectors, across countries, that something really needs to be done, and so we really need to capitalize on that momentum, so I think it was very positive, just in April, for instance, at the joint heads of Pacific Security, where actually transnational crime and drugs featured very prominently. I was also very pleased to hear that the next Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting, that is coming up later in the year, transnational crime and drugs will be a key priority for discussion, and you could also argue that the first ever regional transnational crime summit happening in May, actually it was conceived primarily acknowledging that this crisis did what the drugs issue has reached crisis level, so actually, so much is happening across the region, and I think we really need to capitalize on those efforts and put our heads together and move forward, and ensuring that that disconnect that Dr. Jason was mentioning earlier about between leaders understanding what needs to be done and actually on the ground front line are still unsure about approaches that disconnect is no longer there and actually we have some harm reduction oriented approaches that are also in built into law enforcement responses, because we really need both sides of the story, and I know it&#8217;s a massive cliche, but I think in this, in this context, this really is applicable, that we cannot arrest our way out of this problem, is not about arrest, it&#8217;s not about how many kilos or tons we seize, because we know there will always be more coming through, we need to make our communities in the Pacific and our systems in the Pacific more resilient to withstand the harmful impacts of drug and other forms of criminality and other societal harms.</p>
<p><strong>Dr Nicholas Thomson  </strong>39:58</p>
<p>Well said, Jason, Dee. If you had five minutes at that, the leaders&#8217; meeting, what would you be suggesting from your perspective?</p>
<p><strong>Dr Jason Mitchell  </strong>40:06</p>
<p>I am one of the biggest challenges I have is to remind people of two things: we&#8217;re dealing with human beings here, and we as public health people need to be seeing our patients and our communities as communities of people who have human rights, and that is fundamentally the approach that I take from all the work that I do. I&#8217;m saying this because, with the greatest attention being given to the crisis of drugs in this region, it has led to some serious heavy-handedness in terms of the underground work of our law enforcement policy makers in the country that are really putting a lot of pressure on people who are ready, as Virginia already pointed out, already vulnerable and already at risk, and we&#8217;re making their lives so much harder, and it&#8217;s making us, who are trying to mount an effective public health response, extremely difficult, because we can&#8217;t find the people we need to find who are to benefit from this great public health interventions that we are spending the limited resources we have to invest in, they&#8217;re not benefiting from it because they are being treated as criminals and they go underground, and we&#8217;re seeing that a lot of that here, and I think one of the things that I would like to remind our leaders, of course, if I&#8217;m given the opportunity to talk to them, is that at the end of the day it&#8217;s about the people that we care for, and we need to have a level-handed, caring approach to addressing this as a community together, and it cannot be just one group of people and all health groups of people doing things. We have to all be on the same page, working together with a common goal of addressing the needs of our community holistically and using human rights best practice. Because at the end of the day, once we lose sight of the humanness in each other, we will not come back from that, and I think we have seen enough examples in this region of what happens when we treat each other as criminals rather than human beings that are deserving of fairness, kindness, and good public health interventions.</p>
<p><strong>Dr Nicholas Thomson  </strong>42:17</p>
<p>Incredibly wise words, Jason and Virginia, and I think you both, you know, placing placing human rights at the center of of public health, placing placing human rights at the center of of security, yeah, really is, is, and particularly, and we acknowledge the Pacific is really leading this kind of expanded concept of security, the Boy Declaration lays out that these non-traditional issues &#8211; climate, human security, food, water &#8211; the basics really are the cornerstone of the society, and therefore the security of the society. So the architecture is there, that the frameworks are there, and the philosophies are there. It&#8217;s just, can we turn them on ourselves, and can we be the best versions of ourselves for every person in society. And I would like to thank you both, and and to hope that it&#8217;s a kind of call for some of the ideas that we&#8217;ve put forward today, and it&#8217;s certainly in the paper that if we can form, and you know, Jason&#8217;s experience is central to this. If we can form national co-led committees, you know, police, civil society, and health, can we gather evidence? Can we bring that to the table? Does it also help socialize the issues across society. Can we bring media on board, so that it&#8217;s not just sensational, but it&#8217;s educational and pragmatic. And so let us not forget that all, and you made the very good point, Jason, that you know if we keep talking about crises, we&#8217;re not going to work our way out of it, essentially. So, you know, thank you so much for bringing a human perspective, both of you, to today&#8217;s podcast, and no doubt that the three of us will continue to work together, and we will continue to do whatever we can to support the work of health and human rights, and indeed security across the Pacific, so vernacular to you both, and I look forward to seeing you all again soon.</p>
<p><strong>Dr Jason Mitchell  </strong>44:30</p>
<p>Thank you,</p>
<p><strong>Virginia Comolli  </strong>44:31</p>
<p>thank you, thanks,</p>
<p><strong>Dr Nicholas Thomson  </strong>44:33</p>
<p>Thank you.</p>
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		<title>Regional security in 2026: examining the Pacific’s polycrisis</title>
		<link>https://pacificsecurity.net/podcast/regional-security-in-2026-examining-the-pacifics-polycrisis/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Megan Dingwall]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2026 07:51:45 +0000</pubDate>
				<guid isPermaLink="false">https://pacificsecurity.net/?post_type=podcast&#038;p=4772</guid>

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																								<p>A global fuel crisis, climate change, intensifying geopolitics and a growing HIV and drug epidemic are threatening security in the Pacific.</p>
<p>In the first episode of the Pacific Wayfinder podcast for 2026, join Viliame Bovoro and Monalisa Tiai-Keti from the Pacific Fusion Centre and our Senior Pacific Fellow Joel Nilon as they examine the polycrisis affecting peace and security in our Blue Pacific continent.</p>

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								<div class="prose pb-10 lg:pr-40 text-base"><p><strong>Podcast season one 2026</strong></p>
<p><strong>Akka Rimon</strong> [00:04]<br />
Welcome to the Pacific Wayfinder podcast, your guide to navigating the cross currents of security in the Blue Pacific continent.</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [00:21]<br />
Bula Vinaka, Mauri, Alli, welcome, Talofa. Thank you for joining us on the Pacific Wayfinder podcast. I&#8217;m Joel Nilon, Senior Pacific Fellow at the Pacific Security College. It&#8217;s my pleasure to host our podcast this afternoon. It&#8217;s great to be with you. Now across the Pacific region, we face a range of threats to our peace and security. The most urgent of which include climate change, transnational and organised crime, the proliferation of hard drugs, and food and water security, amongst others. These threats can be exacerbated by political and geopolitical competition, and also by global conflicts like the war in Iran, which has impacted fuel availability, driven up fuel prices across the globe and across our region, and which has had all sorts of flow on impacts on the daily lives of Pacific people. Now the Pacific Fusion Centre, based in Port Vila, Vanuatu, has recently co-published and released the 2026 Pacific Security Outlook Report, in conjunction with the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat. The report analyses in more detail these threats to our peace and security, and also offers recommendations for how our leaders can address them. To discuss the report in detail, it is my pleasure to welcome our guests to the podcast this afternoon, Mr Viliame Bovoro, the Director of the Pacific Fusion Centre, as well as Papalli Monalisa Tiai-Keti, the Assistant Director at the Pacific Fusion Centre, again based in Port Vila, Vanuatu. Vili, Monal isa, good afternoon, and welcome to you both. How are you doing?</p>
<p><strong>Viliame Bovoro</strong> [02:21]<br />
Well, Bula Vinaka Joel. And really, it&#8217;s a pleasure to be on this podcast this afternoon, and have the opportunity to discuss, you know, some of the things that we&#8217;ve covered in that group report. And really looking forward to the discussion ahead. Thanks, Joel.</p>
<p><strong>Monalisa Tiai-Keti</strong> [02:38]<br />
Good afternoon, Joel. Would also like to echo Directors&#8217; comments. We&#8217;re very excited to be part of today&#8217;s program, and you know, share our views in regards to the recent published piece or report. So, very excited, and thank you for bringing us along to this discussion.</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [03:07]<br />
Thank you very m uch, Papalli. And also, congratulations to you on your recent appointment as Assistant Director. It&#8217;s really wonderful to have you here in the position. Can I say, too, congratulations to the Pacific Fusion Centre, and also I guess your co-publishers, the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, on the publication of the report. It is sobering reading in many ways, but I guess it&#8217;s really important that we have a clear picture and a clear understanding of the range of threats to our national and regional security across the Pacific. So, thank you both again for this work. If I may, if we can just get into some of the details and the substance of the report. I just want to start by this idea of poly crisis that you, you, you set out in the report. Polycrisis is a situation in which many threats or crises, you know, come together and converge and overlap and interact with each other. Maybe I can ask you both, you know, which combinations of threats and crises worry you most for the people of the Pacific over the coming years. Thank you.</p>
<p><strong>Viliame Bovoro</strong> [04:26]<br />
Really, for us, I think the polycrisis was really first coined by Prime Minister Rabuka, or he used it back in 2024 I think, at one of the College&#8217;s, you know, the regional conference that was held back then in Suva in Fiji, but he really used the lens polycrisis to look at the intersection between climate change, transnational crime, and human security, which is what he sort of covered, and I think the. It still remains true today, in terms of the key challenges that are facing the region, but, but to me nowadays, everything that that we&#8217;re sort of contending with now is continuously being sharpened, and as we&#8217;ve said in the report, you know, the, we&#8217;re seeing that all across all of the nine sort of thematic areas that we look at, everything seems to be deteriorating across the region, and that is really, I guess, the confluence of what this polycrisis is. I know that it was originally coined as the nexus between climate change, transnational crime, and human security, but I would even say that to me it&#8217;s really about the impact of a number of drivers, more broader than just those three. I mean, the things like the flow on impact that it has on economic security, the sort of ramping up of militarisation or securitisation in the Pacific, which is, you know, it is detracting from Pacific priorities, you know, like, I know that people always say, in the Pacific, we are worried about putting bread and butter on the table, sending our kids to school, but this polycrisis, and how things are beginning to deteriorate across all of this range of security threats and trends, is having an impact on our ability to do that, and I think, you know, things for me, I don&#8217;t want to be the bearer of bad news, but it seems that given the way that we are currently heading, a lot of this will continue to worsen it rather than become better in the next next few years. So it&#8217;s really, I think, more broader than just looking at transnational crime, climate change, and human security, but then really it&#8217;s incumbent upon us to really see how we as a region can organise ourselves collectively to address some of these threats.</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [06:48]<br />
Thank you very much Vili. Monalisa, i&#8217;ll turn to you here.</p>
<p><strong>Monalisa Tiai-Keti</strong> [06:53]<br />
If I may add, I think, as Director says, you know, it&#8217;s such a good opportunity for the region to really look at all the nine thematic areas that are articulated in the report. One thing that the region needs to be aware of is we cannot just focus on one particular area, but rather understanding how all of this security concerns affect the whole region, whether it be climate change, TNOC, or human security, we need to ensure that the other areas that are highlighted in the reports are not forgotten or not looked upon, so it&#8217;s important, right from the our political leaders all the way down to those in the community, they need to really understand how this, you know, not one issue can be dealt with. It needs to be understood holistically, so that whatever decision or whatever response that the region needs to provide or needs to consider in terms of what we are facing now at this point in time, it needs to be done from a collective perspective. So that&#8217;s why you know for us it&#8217;s very important to highlight this in the report, so that there is a collective input and collective solution, and how to, how we can as a region resolve all these issues.</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [08:45]<br />
Thank you so much, Monalisa. And I guess you&#8217;re, you&#8217;re both saying that when we, when it comes to the collective, it&#8217;s not just about 18 member countries, it&#8217;s also about the different actors within our communities, right? It&#8217;s not just the role of government to be responding to these, to these issues and these threats, but there&#8217;s a role for others in our community to play. I think that&#8217;s a really important point you&#8217;re making, there. Thank you for that. I think it sets the scene and the tone for our discussion this afternoon. I wanted to turn to another key theme in the report, climate change, and I know in the report you identify climate change as the single greatest threat to the security of the Pacific, and you, I guess, align yourself with statements of forum leaders in saying that, but I guess we, you know, it&#8217;d be good to just discuss for you, how does this understanding fundamentally reshape or change what security means for Pacific governments and people compared to some of the more traditional approaches to security.</p>
<p><strong>Viliame Bovoro</strong> [10:05]<br />
Thanks, Joel. Maybe I&#8217;ll take this, and then, of course, Monalisa can add to things that I&#8217;ve missed, which I no doubt will, but to me, really, you know, climate change, as we often say, it&#8217;s a threat multiplier. It basically, you know, very similar to what the polycrisis, or the type of effect. It accelerates or multiplies a lot of the other risks or threats that we&#8217;re already facing in the Pacific. So, if you look at, for instance, when we have natural disasters, climate change is making natural disasters more severe, more frequent, and more acute. And if you overlay this with a security lens, basically it will change the way that you know that we want security actors to be responding to such types of crisis. We&#8217;ve seen in the past, I mean, I&#8217;m just talking about impacts on the way that the security sector is planned for these events. Usually, the security sector has been very, and defense have been focused on getting capabilities like war fighting capabilities for the region. This has now shifted because of the impact of climate change. You&#8217;ll see more and more countries that have militaries, they&#8217;re developing their capability to be able to respond to humanitarian assistance and disaster response type situations, more so than you know, like having capability to fight wars, and this is coming more and more to the fore, but really I think the way that climate change has really reshaped the way that our countries think about securities is along these lines, if you look at how countries are now planning for relocation within their countries as a result of sea level rise, it is gone a step beyond just moving people from one one location to another. Now, there&#8217;s to be an assessment, a security assessment carried out about the potential lines of conflict that can arise when you&#8217;re moving a community from here to a new new location. The issues around land, issues around resettling them. When the receiving community sees the incoming community receiving government assistance, housing, what type of impact does it have on the receiving community at the end? So I guess there&#8217;s a lot of considerations. It requires a much more broader planning rather than just the traditional security sector, and I think the, there&#8217;s still a need for us to strengthen how the security sector plugs into the overall planning at government level on how they can address climate change, and again, Joel, to the point that you talked about earlier, it&#8217;s not just going to be a government and law enforcement security, it has to be a full, like a whole of community or whole of nation type of approach to some of these threats that we are now facing.</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [12:46]<br />
Thank you very much, Vili. Very comprehensive response, Monalisa. I&#8217;ll turn to you for any thing to add. Thank you.</p>
<p><strong>Monalisa Tiai-Keti</strong> [12:54]<br />
I think, in terms of, you know, our region, we have the large, the largest ocean in, in the whole world, and we are seeing firsthand the impact of climate change in terms of sea level rising, and how our small island nations all over the Pacific are trying to, you know, adapt and be resilient in terms of responding to all this climate change effects that is affecting the region, in terms of, I think, in to add on to what Director has indicated, is, you know, there&#8217;s a lot of efforts that are being done, especially for those now, for countries that are now being affected by climate change, as to how they ensure that they not only survive but maintain their cultures and traditions, and we look at, I think, Tuvalu who&#8217;s doing efforts around ensuring that you know with what&#8217;s happening in terms of the impact of climate change for the future generation not to lose their cultures and their tradition, so those in terms of when we&#8217;re talking about climate change is not just, you know, sea level rising. There&#8217;s a whole lot of issues that government and the communities need to look at to ensure that, you know, they can continue to maintain and hold on to their traditions, even even though our region has very little contribution to, you know, what&#8217;s happening in terms of climate pollution, but we are, our people are being resilient and finding ways to adapt to all this changes that are happening.</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [15:01]<br />
If we can change gears a little bit, and just move to a third sort of area of focus from the report around, you know, issues related to managing geopolitical competition, and we know that, you know, the intensifying competition between major powers in our region has led, in part, to a rise of bilateral security agreements between, you know, powers and some of our Pacific Island countries. I think, in that, in that context, I do want to ask you both, how Pacific Island countries can maintain, you know, regional unity as a group, and also avoid the fragmentation of their security architecture that can potentially happen, you know, when there&#8217;s an increasing focus on security agreements at a more bilateral level.</p>
<p><strong>Monalisa Tiai-Keti</strong> [16:01]<br />
I think we, the work that it&#8217;s being done in the region is always respecting sovereignty, but also making sure that our political leaders understand that when we are looking at climate change, transnational organised crime, it cannot be dealt with by just one country. It&#8217;s affecting all of us. So, there needs to be a collective approach as to how we deal with these situations. Of course, you know the geopolitical competition in the region and the increase of bilateral arrangements that are being done, especially around the security, traditional security areas, is one that you know it&#8217;s it&#8217;s a discretion for each own country, but what is important is making sure that the political government must understand that, you know, to resolve all this, or to better address all these regional issues that we are facing it requires, like I said before, a holistic and a whole of region approach.</p>
<p><strong>Viliame Bovoro</strong> [17:27]<br />
For me, it&#8217;s really around transparency, I guess, which has been some of the concerns around some of the bilateral agreements that some of our countries have entered into. Of course, as Monalisa said it is the sovereign right of our members to undertake these bilateral agreements, but I guess given that we are all part of this Pacific family, you know, having transparency around some of the agreements will go a long way, and I must say, as well, like we&#8217;ve not only seen an increase between Pacific Island countries and external partners, but even within the Pacific family themselves, we&#8217;ve seen Australia enter into a number of bilateral agreements, we&#8217;ve seen even like Papua New Guinea with Solomon Island, Solomon Islands with Fiji, Fiji, and vice versa, and as has been shared by modelists, and this is all in response to this intensifying competition, but I think if there is most of our countries now have national security policies, and a lot of our countries enter into these arrangements based on the national security policies, so for me building understanding and transparency around these bilateral agreements, you know, will only enhance the linkages between that and the collective things that they&#8217;ve agreed to.</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [18:50]<br />
No, fully, fully agree with you, you both, and fully agree. It&#8217;s really about, you know, transparency that continues to allow, you know, trust and confidence amongst those who have the sovereign right to act bilaterally, but also, you know, exist within a broader family where collective action remains so, so important. Thank you very much to you both for those again very comprehensive responses. I guess, staying on, you know, the theme of the interaction of, you know, broader global dynamics in our region, we&#8217;ve also seen a lot of commentary recently in relation to conflicts that are happening all around the world right now, whether that&#8217;s, you know, in Gaza or Ukraine, or even recently in Iran, some of this commentary, I guess, suggests that we&#8217;re seeing maybe an erosion or even a collapse of the global rules-based order, probably from a Pacific perspective. What do you think this means in terms of the erosion of global rules for us in the Pacific, especially given that we have traditionally relied on, you know, international law and the multilateral system in order to, you know, guarantee and advance our security agenda.</p>
<p><strong>Viliame Bovoro</strong> [20:17]<br />
Thanks, Joel. You know, you know, for from my perspective, and also I mean, we highlighted this in the report as well. I agree, there is an erosion of the global rules-based order. I think this started, I guess, a decade ago, when you see the actions by China and Russia in the way that they&#8217;ve been testing the global rules-based order. I always use the analogy that the rules-based order is like a rubber band. Actors or big powers, they are able to stretch that rubber band in the direction that they want, but hopefully they don&#8217;t break the break the rubber band. And we are seeing that people say that, I guess, that China and Russia are revisionist powers, meaning that they want to revise the global order. I take a view that this may, you know, to some extent, there, there, Russia is trying to be to disrupt the global order, while China seeks to act within the global rules-based order, which it&#8217;s, it&#8217;s to the, to their benefit, and then use other means when they see it&#8217;s more better for the national interest, but what is surprising now, Joel, is that the US is one of the founders of this global rules-based order, is now also playing a part in, I wouldn&#8217;t say eroding it, but maybe you know using it in ways I don&#8217;t want to say, but innovative ways, I guess, in how they are prosecuting some of the efforts around the around security, and how they are progressing this current administration&#8217;s America First, there, but, but that being said, when you bring it back to the Pacific Joel, we, we, I people always think that we&#8217;re a passive onlooker to all these things, but that is far from the truth. We have our values that are sort of enshrined by the Pacific way that we all allude to. I personally think that the Pacific way that was evident in 1970 when the forum was formed needs to be updated to the current environment that we now find ourselves in, and, and I think there needs to be a, you know, another discussion by our leaders, you know, all of our countries in, in what the Pacific way now means for us today, in particular, when we have a number of declarations that are coming now, like th e Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace. I always, another analogy that I will say is that the Pacific has a lot of carrots, but not enough sticks, and that is why we are so dependent on this on this rules-based order. But if the very people who have created this and we have stood it up are now themselves testing it and trying to shift it, you know, it takes away from our what we always say, that we are, we respect the rules-based order based on the UN Charter, which has always been the, yeah, and I think looking forward, and it&#8217;s then the report that there are new emerging issues that will continue to test this rules-based order within the Pacific, this is, we are already seeing it being tested around climate change. We&#8217;re seeing it being tested around the trade rules that we have, but I think there are other things that are coming up now, like critical minerals, space, the use of space, and also, you know, emerging technologies, and these are things that that are also highlighted in the report, where I think these types of discussions on how global governance, and then, by in effect, how that will impact, you know, the way that the Pacific sort of addresses or deals with these things. This will will come to the fore in the, in the near future.</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [23:57]<br />
Thank you, Vili Monalisa. Anything further?</p>
<p><strong>Monalisa Tiai-Keti</strong> [24:00]<br />
I think given that director is adding quite a few analogies, you know, when you were talking about a collective response, I think what comes to mind also is probably how, and I keep referring to Epeli Hau&#8217;ofa because I think he made a really good observation about the strength of the Pacific when they come together and rather than the perception that we are just islands in the sea we are you know a sea of islands and collectively we are more stronger in terms of voicing Pacific needs at an international level, and you know a lot of what is happening around the world does impact us, and we&#8217;re seeing it with the energy crisis that is affecting us, although we are quite far away from from the Strait of Hormuz, but in the impact that we are now feeling really calls for for us to come together, and especially for our political leaders to really see how important is for, for the region to, to, you know, address international issues from a collective, and I think this is the best opportunity, as to highlight our regional voice to, to the superpowers.</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [25:38]<br />
I think what you just said there, Monalisa, I think is the is the vision for for for our region, you know, from from the days of the founding of the Forum, even prior to that, through what I believe has been writing on, and you know, through to today being able to make the most of norms and values in the way we come together through something like Pacific way to even our own more formal governance, I see leaders have opted to invoke Biketawa not long ago as a way to respond to the fuel crisis that you&#8217;ve spoken about, so I mean all of these things are ways that we, yeah, we really need to come together to make the most of the crisis. If I can put it that way, there&#8217;s a crisis that is here. I mean, yes, it&#8217;s a concern, but also an opportunity. So, I want to point us to another critical issue that you, you have in the report related to transnational organised crime and its impact, a growing impact across our region, and so again you do highlight the influence of TNOC, particularly through the trafficking of hard drugs, such as, you know, methamphetamine and cocaine, to you, and based on the report, How do you see this as changing the the fabric of our Pacific communities? And do you think that our current responses are keeping pace with the with the with the threat?</p>
<p><strong>Monalisa Tiai-Keti</strong> [27:20]<br />
Of course, in terms of we are seeing it also in terms of amount of detection and seizures that are happening across the region. I think when, when the transnational organised crime strategy was launched in 2024, back then, I think, in terms of seizures, we have &#8211; we&#8217;ve seen how the seizures were detected in amounts of kilograms and grams, but I think lately we&#8217;ve seen that the amounts that have been detected by law enforcement are found in tons, so that really, you know, shows that I think our region is no longer just a transiting point for all these drugs that are coming through the region, and we&#8217;re seeing also the impact of drugs, and I think the health is the AIDS epidemic in Fiji, so very unfortunate, but you know, I think as a region we continue to highlight the importance of a collective approach to this issue, as well. Information, I think, from law enforcement that we have already, and it&#8217;s already made known on open sources. We know that the market is Australia and New Zealand, so we&#8217;re finding the important thing is to really look at how we deter this transnational organised crime from affecting our communities, but looking at what is happening, the health impact of drugs in Fiji, and how, if solutions are not being addressed, then this problem will eventually affect the whole region. I think, as a, in terms of my background before taking up this role, you know, Fiji has always been, if what happens in Fiji will almost like funnel down into the whole region, we don&#8217;t want what&#8217;s happening now in Fiji to spill out into the region, but to ensure that we stop this in Fiji, is we need to find solutions as to how we can. Solve this matter, so I think there are regional meetings that are happening soon that is going to look at ways to improve the way law enforcement operates, the way law enforcement share information, and you know, also around awareness, because I think the community may feel like they&#8217;re being isolated from all these issues and not being involved in finding solutions, so, yep it&#8217;s a serious issue, but one that we need to collectively look at as well.</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [30:39]<br />
Thank you very much, Papalii Mona Lisa, and yes, your particular experience as a former Assistant Police Commissioner in Samoa gives really important insight into, into this issue. Thank you very much for that response. Vili, any anything</p>
<p><strong>Viliame Bovoro</strong> [31:00]<br />
to add? I really want to emphasize what Monalisa said, you know, in Fiji, right now 1% of the population has been tested positive for HIV, so that points to a much greater number of people that are living with HIV, and as evidenced by by the statistics, together with large seizures that were being caught in Fiji, it links up very.. I mean, it synchronises the time that these issues were being found, the spillover of drugs into the local market in Fiji with the increase in HIV rates. So it goes back to that issue that you were talking about, Joel. I mean, for me, like the real danger, and as Monalisa said, we are in danger of losing a whole generation there in Fiji, the youth, the youth that we have now, the multi, the huge number of people being detected are between the ages of 20 to 29 and that&#8217;s our youth, these are the people that we are going to be relying on to run Fiji in the next 15 to 20 years, when we are long gone, so for me, like the issue is, you know, can be law enforcement driven, but I think one of Monalisa&#8217;s competitors also said that you can&#8217;t arrest yourself out of this crisis, it needs to be, as she said, a whole of government, a whole of society, whole of community approach, where the solutions are developed and led by the whole community, and not just law enforcement. Monalisa, you, you mentioned there are a number of regional dialogs, meetings where you know ministers, senior officials, experts will will come together to talk about a regional approach and collective approach for countries, you know, not that are not Fiji, that are you know really looking upon the things that are happening here and wanting to, I guess, you know, shore up or protect you know themselves. What measures do you do? You think they can, they can</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [32:59]<br />
take to do that?</p>
<p><strong>Monalisa Tiai-Keti</strong> [33:02]<br />
I think in terms of a regional response, whilst not all countries are part of PIFs, but certainly there&#8217;s a number of agencies, regional agencies that also looking into this issue, whether it&#8217;s health, whether it&#8217;s, you know, social sectors, those are the agencies that I feel will also need to contribute, and when I say contribute is making sure that the message or decisions that are being made at PIFs, you know, funnel down all the way to the to those people at the community level, because they need to understand what has been discussed, and I think sometimes we lose, we lose that in terms of sharing the information from the top all the way down to that frontline officer, so that they also take ownership of this response. There&#8217;s also, I think now with it, with technology being made available and fight across the region, there&#8217;s, you know, connectivity is making information easier for for us to access to, it&#8217;s just a matter of making sure that you know we provide appropriate links to those at the community and those who are not, because we, of course, we can&#8217;t bring everyone to Fiji for a summit or for a dialogue of discussion. One solution in Fiji might not be the most, the best solution somewhere up north, but understanding that this is how Fiji is dealing with this situation, it can also form an understanding and help each community respond better to, to, to the impact of, you know, drug drugs in, in our communities.</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [35:22]<br />
Thank you so much, Monalisa, for that. Colleagues, you know a lot of our discussion has been on the threats and challenges. Maybe as a closing question to you both, focused on, as you mentioned before Vili, the Ocean of Peace, the Ocean of Peace Declaration has been presented in the report as a, I guess, as a political anchor for our region, taking that, I guess, into account for you both, what would I guess success look like if the vision and the aspirations of the Ocean of Peace were to be fully sort of realised in practice. Thank you. I&#8217;ll open it up</p>
<p><strong>Viliame Bovoro</strong> [36:10]<br />
For me, the Ocean of Peace, you&#8217;ve correctly termed it, is a political anchor for all of the Pacific efforts. I guess, because I think in order to have peace, you need to have good progress economically, trade wise, socially, culturally, everything. It all plays into this element of how we not only build but then sustain and and strengthen peace across all of the Pacific. To me, also, I think success for me would would really be the Ocean of Peace being an intergenerational commitment, just like the 2050 Strategy is. It cannot be something that this current crop of Pacific leaders have agreed to. And then somewhere five years down the line, because leadership changes across the Pacific, we need to be trying to reinforce or relitigate some of the commitments that they&#8217;ve made, that or that our current crop of leaders have made, and for that, Joel, for me, really, success is not only about us holding our external partners to account through this Ocean of Peace Declaration, but it&#8217;s also about holding us, the Pacific, ourselves in holding us to account for the commitments that we have made under this declaration and other declarations that we&#8217;ve made.</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [37:27]<br />
Thank you, Vili. Maybe to add to the analogies, like any good partnership, or even marriage, you know, you have to recommit to the vows every now and then, right?</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [37:41]<br />
That is true.</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [37:44]<br />
Otherwise something might go a bit wrong. Commitment, commitment. Thank you so much, Vili for that, Monalisa. I&#8217;d love to give you the final, the final word on this. Thank you,</p>
<p><strong>Monalisa Tiai-Keti</strong> [38:00]<br />
Thank you, Joel. I think, for me, you know, when we talk about the Ocean of Peace, and really the emphasis is on peace. I think it&#8217;s we are at a juncture where it&#8217;s important when we talk about peace, we are inclusive, and with that, I think you know we&#8217;ve seen how the lenses of a certain particular group of, you know, security experts does not include the views of others, and I think, as a collective, we need to ensure that you know the discussions around and contribution to peace is including including men, women, children, and the whole community, and I think collectively, if everybody understands, then everybody will have that contribution and will take value and take pride into making sure that our region continues to be a Blue Pacific, so that&#8217;s I think for me what it means to what it means for me personally about what peace is all about is about including the views of others when discussions are being made around the important issues that are affecting us all and not just a very limited number of representation, I think all of us, even myself and Director, probably when we got appointed into this role, it&#8217;s important to really see the whole Pacific from, from like a helicopter view, and understanding why things are the way it is, and you know, I think the Pacific Island Forum Secretariat will make a really good platform to provide that sort of renewal of vows to our political leaders, who are coming through, because they deserve to understand, and we are mindful that, you know, leaders and Directors, regional are all in their positions at a certain point of time, and not a lifetime role, so to ensure that there&#8217;s a continuous commitment is making sure that they feel they have a part to play in in in our efforts for Ocean of Peace.</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [40:54]<br />
Malo le soifua. Monalisa, thank you so much. Before we end this afternoon, is there any final comments or statements either of you would like to make? AD, you first.</p>
<p><strong>Monalisa Tiai-Keti</strong> [41:09]<br />
Yeah. Thank you, Joel. And thank you to the Pacific Security College for inviting us to be part of this panel we are very truly honoured to be asked to participate and really to have the opportunity to talk more and explain more about the Pacific Security Outlook Report.</p>
<p><strong>Viliame Bovoro</strong> [41:35]<br />
Thank you so much, Monalisa. Vili. Thank you. Thank you, Joel. And, yeah, just, just to echo what Monalisa said, you know, when you read through the report, it may seem very bleak and very discouraging, but I just want to also say that, you know, the Pacific, we are not passive. As you read through the report under each of the thematic areas, you will see the opportunities that we are talking about that the Pacific can look at in order to address some of these threats and risks and concerns that we are facing, and a lot of those opportunities, if you look at there are already work that is being done at the regional level, all we are calling for is that we need to accelerate and strengthen and really fully resource some of these efforts, lines of effort that we are putting into place, so you know, I just want to tell our listeners, you know, the, if you read the report, you know, it may paint a very bleak picture, but rest assured, we are not passive, the Pacific, we are, we are fighting back as a collective to address these concerns, so rest assured of that, and again, just to echo what Monalisa had said, you know, really, thank the Security College for allowing us this opportunity to come on and talk about this report. This is our annual report, it&#8217;s our flagship product, and it&#8217;s available to everyone. Not all our products are available to members of the public, but this is the only product by the Centre that is publicly available, and we encourage you all to have a read as you listen to this podcast, but also have a read of the report, and then you know we&#8217;re always happy to receive feedback on that product, and it&#8217;s there as well in the report how you can get in contact with us, but again, Joel and the Security College, thank you so much for the opportunity today. Thank you very much, Vili. And it leaves me to again say a big congratulations</p>
<p><strong>Joel Nilon</strong> [43:30]<br />
to the Pacific Fusion Centre and also the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat for the publication and the production of the Pacific Security Outlook Report. Thank you both sincerely for your time this afternoon. It&#8217;s been a wonderful discussion, and hopefully we can do this again sometime in the future. Let me also thank our audiences and our stakeholders from across the Blue Pacific for joining us for this episode of the Pacific Wayfinder podcast. Of course, we wish you well wherever you are across the Blue Pacific continent, and we look forward to seeing you on the next episode. Goodbye for now.</p>
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		<title>Expecting the unexpected: embedding foresight in Pacific processes</title>
		<link>https://pacificsecurity.net/blog/expecting-the-unexpected-embedding-foresight-in-pacific-processes/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Megan Dingwall]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Oct 2025 02:57:48 +0000</pubDate>
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																								<p>Pacific Island Forum Leaders operate in a highly uncertain environment &#8211; dealing with everything from natural disasters, and parliamentary instability to <a href="https://devpolicy.org/trumps-tariffs-and-the-pacific-20250408/">tariff announcements</a>.</p>
<p>The practice of ‘foresight’ can help leaders anticipate possible future trends and events and evaluate the best option to take. Foresight equips leaders to act at the right moment, not by predicting the future, but by preparing for possible future events and identifying the most beneficial course of action.</p>
<p>Some Forum Member countries are already using strategic foresight.</p>
<p>Fiji has embedded long-range thinking into law, through its <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.fj/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Act-No.-43-Climate-Change.pdf"><em>Climate Change Act 2021</em></a>, creating a legal basis for carbon budgets, data systems, and long-term targets, and giving ministries institutional authority for future-oriented policy.</p>
<p>The Cook Islands uses a multi-time scale design in its <a href="https://www.pmoffice.gov.ck/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Turanga-Meitaki-100-mataiti-Digital.pdf"><em>Te Ara Akapapa’anga Nui – National Sustainable Development Agenda (NSDA) 2020</em></a><em>+.</em> The agenda consists of a 100-year vision; with annual indicator reports, five-year strategies and a 25-year framework, connecting daily ministerial decisions to multi-generational direction.</p>
<p>Through the <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/180924%2520rmi%25202050%2520climate%2520strategy%2520final_0.pdf"><em>Tile Til Eo</em> 2050 </a>climate strategy, the Republic of Marshall Islands has anchored its long-term approach to climate change to cultural and traditional concepts to guide climate resilience approaches that span political cycles.</p>
<p>There is enormous value in governments embedding foresight into existing government rhythms rather than creating parallel systems that compete for attention and resources.</p>
<p>So, how can governments do this in a way that respects culture, and works within the limited financial and human resources that many Pacific governments face?</p>
<h3><strong>A tailored approach</strong></h3>
<p>Senior government officials have limited financial and human resources but oversee extensive portfolios and face significant donor reporting requirements. Their cabinet reporting and briefing obligations also cover a wide array of issues. In this context, the use of foresight can be beneficial, but it must be tailored to suit resourcing and the nation’s needs.</p>
<p>When deadlines are short and human resources stretched, a brief foresight exercise can be highly beneficial. A rapid scan to identify just 10-20 key signals can be condensed into a short cabinet paper that highlights key risks, opportunities, and &#8216;no-regrets&#8217; actions that make sense no matter what the future holds. In situations of poor internet connectivity, inputs for a scan can be gathered through <a href="https://www.foresightfordevelopment.org/library/55/1473-oecd-government-foresight-community-annual-meeting-report-2020-strategic-foresight-for-future-ready-public-policy">WhatsApp </a>or similar applications or even transcribed voice notes.</p>
<p>Where decisions require more robust analysis, a 90-minute scenario stress test can offer deeper insight. This involves checking a preferred option against up to four different possible future scenarios and identifying any necessary adaptive approaches.</p>
<p>There are a number of sustainable ways to embed foresight into ongoing operations. Aligning quarterly foresight scans with budget preparation cycles would enable foresight to feed directly into resource allocation considerations and decisions. Developing templates and processes to bring foresight approaches into the ordinary policymaking processes of government and day-to-day planning and reporting is another way forward. Employing a foresight manager and analyst in the Prime Minister’s office or in the Planning Ministry could also establish continuity.</p>
<h3><strong>Tools of the trade</strong></h3>
<p>Small ministries need not reinvent the wheel when it comes to global trends analysis. Strategic adaptation of existing global scans, combined with Pacific or national level overlays can create relatively sophisticated outputs at manageable cost. A global tourism scenario, for example, might be adapted by layering Pacific-relevant analysis, context, and local emerging issues, to develop a customised five-year plan.</p>
<p>Existing toolkits and resources, such as Pacific Community’s  <a href="https://spccfpstore1.blob.core.windows.net/digitallibrary-docs/files/f5/f5b68eaabe3f76157a806f200dd1205a.pdf?sv=2015-12-11&amp;sr=b&amp;sig=HAK7mdwprJtulAK%252Ba9aiI0aW55i%252BCvsrUuTy0KKFppg%253D&amp;se=2026-04-01T01%253A02%253A39Z&amp;sp=r&amp;rscc=public%252C%2520max-age%253D864000%252C%2520max-stale%253D86400&amp;rsct=application%252Fpdf&amp;rscd=inline%253B%2520filename%253D%2522SPC_Pacific_Pathfinder_a_toolkit_to_imagine_and_create_futures.pdf%2522">Pacific Pathfinder</a>, can be applied to a national context. The Pacific Pathfinder offers tested tools that have been developed for regional use, and countries should adopt and adapt these to match their capacity. Horizon scanning, scenario development and the use of the futures triangle framework should be considered part of a menu of options, rather than a system to be used in full. Similarly, the <a href="https://digitalearthpacific.org/">Digital Earth Pacific programme</a> offers regional and national climate change observations from which national analysis can be developed.</p>
<p>It is also possible to share analytical costs through regional and South-South cooperation. When one Forum Island country develops climate scenarios, it may be possible for neighbouring countries to also use and adapt them. Template sharing and joint analysis can reduce individual country costs while <a href="https://www.undp.org/asia-pacific/publications/undp-rbap-foresight-playbook">improving quality</a> through peer validation and cross-country learning.</p>
<h3><strong>Consultation and consistency</strong></h3>
<p>Embedding the use of foresight at national level may require engagement that goes beyond government consultation.</p>
<p>This may require conducting <a href="https://openlibrary.org/books/OL16288454M/Knowing_and_learning">consultation in the community</a>, conducting consultations and <a href="https://researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz/server/api/core/bitstreams/4d7849c6-d17c-44f7-8380-dc0b7e330028/content">closing the ‘feedback loop’</a> by providing a timely plain-language report to participants.</p>
<p>An effective signals scan or outlook report should be built on a wide array of stakeholder views. Engaging a variety of stakeholders while preparing a forward-looking project or plan can build community legitimacy and ownership.</p>
<p>By embedding foresight into everyday decision-making, Pacific governments can move from reacting to crises toward shaping resilient futures. The approaches don’t need to be complex or resource-heavy – what matters is consistency, contextual grounding and alignment with existing processes.</p>
<p>In an age of uncertainty, foresight is not a luxury; it is a practical tool for leaders to navigate risks, seize opportunities, and chart a course that safeguards the wellbeing of generations to come.</p>
<p><strong><em>Gareth Priday</em></strong><em> is a foresight practitioner with Action Foresight and a director of the Australian Living Labs innovation network. He supported the foresight process for the </em>2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent<em>.</em></p>
<p><strong><em>Joel Nilon</em></strong><em> is Senior Pacific Fellow at the Pacific Security College at the Australian National University. He previously served at the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat for nine years as a Policy Adviser and led the development of the </em>2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent<em>.  </em></p>
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<p>Views expressed via the Pacific Wayfinder blog are not necessarily those of the Pacific Security College.</p>
<p>This article is licensed under a <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.en">Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License</a> (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). Read <a href="https://pacificsecurity.net/publishing-policy/">our publishing policy</a>.</p>

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		<title>Pacific security community unites in Suva to tackle shared challenges</title>
		<link>https://pacificsecurity.net/media-release/pacific-security-community-unites-in-suva-to-tackle-shared-challenges/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Megan Dingwall]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Jul 2025 00:21:43 +0000</pubDate>
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																								<p>The Pacific Regional and National Security Conference has reinforced the power of Pacific unity, values and leadership in confronting the region’s most pressing security challenges.</p>
<p>Over three days in Suva, more than 150 delegates from 22 countries gathered to explore how the region can respond to a complex and evolving security environment. Among them were eight Ministers from six Forum member countries, alongside senior regional and national officials, civil society leaders, academics and diplomats.</p>
<p>Conference discussions explored the need for Pacific-led security approaches grounded in shared values and reaffirmed climate change as the region’s most urgent threat.</p>
<p>Panels highlighted transnational crime, particularly the growing impact of methamphetamine use, as an immediate and complex challenge requiring coordinated but locally tailored responses. Sessions also discussed maritime security, cybersecurity, regional security frameworks, and trends in national security. The importance of inclusive national security strategies was raised, including the leadership of youth, women, civil society and persons with disability.</p>

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																								<p>Speaking at the conference closing, Pacific Islands Forum Secretary General Baron Waqa said the conference had underscored the importance of unity and cooperation in addressing the complex security challenges.</p>
<p>“The insights and perspectives shared by all participants have been invaluable in shaping our path forward,” he said.</p>
<p>“Our discussions over the last three days have emphasised the importance of addressing the various security issues we face through regional cooperation, evidence-based policies and improved alignment between national and regional security priorities,” he said.</p>
<p>“We must continue to explore the potential to strengthen our security collaborations. We must continue to look at strengthening information sharing by breaking down barriers that continue to hinder our collaboration. These efforts will enhance our cohesion and alignment to address the polycrisis facing our blue Pacific continent.”</p>

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																								<p>The Prime Minister of Niue, the Hon Dalton Tagelagi, closed the conference on Wednesday afternoon and shared his confidence in the region to confront the security challenges before it by drawing in the whole community and traditional leaders.</p>
<p>“I started the conference by posing the question, what does security mean to you? The answer has come back. Security is holistic. It is the whole person. It is a whole community. It is a whole country, and it is the whole region. Security is leaving no one behind. Security is about protecting our values,” he said.</p>
<p>“Some may wonder, will the Pacific fail or rise before this crisis? My friends, the clear answer from this conference is the Pacific will rise and beat these challenges.”</p>
<p>A central theme throughout the 2025 conference was the vision of an Ocean of Peace &#8211; a secure, resilient and united Blue Pacific &#8211; anchored in collective action and Pacific values.</p>
<p>A headline panel on the second day of the conference explored the proposal as a potential response to region’s overlapping security challenges, such as accelerating climate risks, unresolved nuclear issues and geopolitical pressures.</p>
<p>On the final day of the conference, delegates took part in an interactive futures exercise, imagining a peaceful, resilient and united Pacific by 2050.</p>
<p>The session invited participants to consider what decisions must be made now to navigate the challenges ahead and steer toward a shared vision of an Ocean of Peace. Insights gathered during the exercise will feed into the drafting of a regional Ocean of Peace declaration for consideration by Forum Leaders in September.</p>
<p>Professor Dave Peebles, Director of the Pacific Security College, thanked the many partners who contributed to the success of the conference.</p>
<p>“We were very grateful to partner with 10 regional organisations, particularly the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat and the University of the South Pacific, to bring the Pacific security community together,” he said.</p>
<p>“I finish the conference full of optimism and hope, that the wisdom of our Pacific security leaders will help us to overcome the polycrisis before the Blue Pacific.</p>
<p>“There’s much to be getting on with, but the good ideas, good spirit, sharing and concern demonstrated by the Pacific security community this week is really inspiring.</p>
<p>“We look forward to next year’s Pacific Regional and National Security Conference.”</p>

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		<title>Analysing Pacific Security</title>
		<link>https://pacificsecurity.net/course/analysing-pacific-security-2/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Megan Dingwall]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Mar 2025 22:50:50 +0000</pubDate>
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																								<p>Pacific leaders rely on analysis to support their decision making in an increasingly complex operating environment.  </p>
<p>This capability needs to be employed with a clear-eyed view of Pacific national and regional security interests. It includes understanding the interdependence between people, environment, culture and local capability.  </p>
<p>The course provides the skills and understanding of analysis tradecraft for application in the Pacific. It supports participants to confront the perennial problems of analysis – the complexity of international and local developments, incomplete and ambiguous information as well as cognitive biases.  </p>
<p>Participants will enjoy practical exercises and feedback from qualified experts on their draft assessments. Ultimately, the purpose of this credential is to provide a shared language and skill base that supports a community of analysts in the Pacific.</p>

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